GCL TECH(03800) 甬兴证券·2024-11-03 02:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock price is expected to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% [4][13]. Core Insights - The company reported an unaudited loss attributable to owners of approximately 1.492 billion yuan for Q3 2024, with a total loss of about 2.971 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - Cash costs continue to decline, with Q3 2024 cash costs down 12.32% from Q1 2024 and 5.71% from Q2 2024, driven by increased production capacity utilization [2]. - The company achieved a 33% reduction in carbon footprint at its Leshan base, setting a new global industry record, with carbon emissions of only 24.913 kg CO2 equivalent per kg of granular silicon [3]. - The company plans to launch its SiRo carbon chain components, which will utilize its granular silicon as raw material, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [3]. Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 17.057 billion yuan, 30.523 billion yuan, and 42.118 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -49%, +79%, and +38% [4]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is -2.921 billion yuan, 1.544 billion yuan, and 4.326 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -216%, +153%, and +180% [4]. - The stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 30 for 2025 and 11 for 2026, indicating potential for recovery in profitability as silicon prices stabilize [4].