lu'an EED(601699) 中泰证券·2024-11-03 02:30Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit have declined significantly in 2024, with revenue decreasing by 19.28% YoY to RMB 26.649 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 61.51% YoY to RMB 2.798 billion [2] - The company's Q3 2024 performance showed a continued decline, with revenue decreasing by 19.19% YoY and net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 71.03% YoY [2] - Despite the decline in performance, the company's Q3 coal production and sales showed some improvement, with coal production increasing by 2.56% QoQ and coal sales increasing by 6.12% QoQ [2] - The company's profitability is under pressure due to declining coal prices and rising costs, with the gross profit per ton of coal decreasing by 30.53% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance from 2025, with revenue and net profit expected to grow by 3.7% and 12.7% YoY, respectively [4] Financial Performance and Valuation - The company's revenue is expected to be RMB 34.405 billion, RMB 35.686 billion, and RMB 36.694 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of -20%, 4%, and 3% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 3.511 billion, RMB 3.959 billion, and RMB 4.320 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of -56%, 13%, and 9% [1] - The company's EPS is expected to be RMB 1.17, RMB 1.32, and RMB 1.44 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to be 13.1X, 11.6X, and 10.6X in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - The company's ROE is expected to be 7%, 7%, and 8% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] Production and Sales - The company's coal production in the first three quarters of 2024 was 42.47 million tons, a decrease of 4.82% YoY, with mixed coal production of 21.21 million tons (down 4.29% YoY) and PCI coal production of 14.99 million tons (down 6.49% YoY) [2] - The company's coal sales in the first three quarters of 2024 were 38.07 million tons, a decrease of 5.79% YoY, with mixed coal sales of 21.24 million tons (down 3.59% YoY) and PCI coal sales of 14.88 million tons (down 3.94% YoY) [2] - In Q3 2024, the company's coal production was 14.80 million tons (down 1.86% YoY, up 2.56% QoQ), with mixed coal production of 7.44 million tons (up 8.61% YoY, up 1.64% QoQ) and PCI coal production of 5.29 million tons (down 8.95% YoY, up 9.07% QoQ) [2] - In Q3 2024, the company's coal sales were 13.52 million tons (up 1.81% YoY, up 6.12% QoQ), with mixed coal sales of 7.39 million tons (up 10.79% YoY, up 1.23% QoQ) and PCI coal sales of 5.52 million tons (down 2.65% YoY, up 15.72% QoQ) [2] Industry Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the trend of large-scale blast furnaces in downstream steel mills, which will drive demand for PCI coal [2] - The company, as a leading PCI coal producer in China, is expected to see further growth in production in Q4 2024, driven by Shanxi's coal production target [2] Financial Ratios - The company's gross margin was 47.7% in 2023, but is expected to decline to 36.6% in 2024, before recovering to 37.8% and 38.7% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's net margin was 21.5% in 2023, but is expected to decline to 11.9% in 2024, before recovering to 13.0% and 13.8% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's ROE was 16.0% in 2023, but is expected to decline to 6.8% in 2024, before recovering to 7.3% and 7.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio was 18.3% in 2023, and is expected to remain stable at around 18.5% in 2024, before declining to 17.6% and 16.7% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4]