奥瑞金：24Q3符合预期，关注收购业务进程

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.857 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 761 million yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights the resilience of the company's revenue in Q3 despite weak terminal demand, with a slight revenue increase of 1.9% year-on-year [2]. - The report emphasizes the impact of weak demand and fluctuating raw material prices on short-term profitability, noting a Q3 gross margin of 16.27%, down 0.08 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Future revenue growth is projected at 7.8%, 7.5%, and 8.2% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth of 18.9%, 16.5%, and 14.9% respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.651 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.1%. The net profit for Q3 was 213 million yuan, down 12.5% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 17.3%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 6.95%, up 0.52 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Dynamics - The company's two-piece can business is expected to face slight pressure due to a slowdown in terminal demand, with beer production declining by 5.3% year-on-year in Q3 [2]. - The three-piece beverage can segment is anticipated to remain stable due to strong relationships with major clients and a diversified customer base [2]. Profitability Outlook - The report forecasts a gross margin of 15.0% for 2024, with net margins improving to 6.4% by 2026 [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from potential acquisitions, which could enhance the competitive landscape in the two-piece can industry [4].