兴业银行：营收持续修复，拨备维持高位

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 22.06 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price of 18.29 CNY [6][26]. Core Insights - The company has shown a continuous recovery in revenue, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reaching approximately 164.2 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.81%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.02% year-on-year to 63 billion CNY due to increased provisioning [2][10]. - The net interest margin has come under pressure, declining to 1.79% in Q3 2024, down 7 basis points from mid-2024, primarily due to the impact of LPR and adjustments in existing mortgage rates [2][13]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08% and a provision coverage ratio of 233.5% as of Q3 2024 [3][24]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a net interest income of 111.6 billion CNY, up 2.39% year-on-year, while non-interest income was 52.6 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 0.61% [10][26]. - The company’s total assets amounted to 99,332 billion CNY, with a slight decrease of 745 billion CNY from the previous half-year [17]. - The loan-to-deposit ratio stood at 105.8%, showing a slight increase compared to mid-2024 and outperforming the same period last year [13][17]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is expected to grow by 2.23%, 2.25%, and 5.38% respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 37.77 CNY, 40.65 CNY, and 43.36 CNY [26][27]. - The company’s earnings per share for 2024 is projected to be 3.80 CNY, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.82 [27].