Keqian Biology(SH:688526) Guohai Securities·2024-11-03 06:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][3] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance shows significant improvement compared to previous quarters, with a notable recovery in operational performance and profitability [3] - The company has reduced credit impairment risks significantly due to profitability in the downstream pig farming industry since May [3] - Recent approvals for new vaccines indicate that the company's R&D efforts are entering a fruitful phase, enhancing its product portfolio and market competitiveness [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 666 million, a year-on-year decrease of 19.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 261 million, down 27.09% [3] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 265 million, a year-on-year decline of 10.35%, while net profit was 108 million, down 8.68% [3] - The gross margin increased by 5.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, and the net profit margin improved by 7.35 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 1,006 million, 1,168 million, and 1,378 million, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.48%, +16.16%, and +17.95% respectively [3] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 371 million, 438 million, and 519 million, with year-on-year growth rates of -6.28%, +17.97%, and +18.62% respectively [3] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 18x, 15x, and 13x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3]