CMSK(SZ:001979) Tianfeng Securities·2024-11-03 06:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 11.57 yuan [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue increased by 9.64% YoY to 26.737 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 26.78% YoY to 1.183 billion yuan [1] - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 9.95%, down 2.03 percentage points from the first half of 2024 and 8.3 percentage points from the same period in 2023 [1] - The company's sales remained stable, with a cumulative contracted sales area of 6.4244 million square meters and a cumulative contracted sales amount of 145.171 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company acquired 14 land parcels in the first three quarters of 2024, with a total planned construction area of 1.3997 million square meters and a total land price of 28.884 billion yuan [1] - The company's operating cash flow improved, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 12.971 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company's REIT for rental housing was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, raising 1.3635 billion yuan [1] - The company announced a share repurchase plan with a total amount of 351 million to 702 million yuan, demonstrating management's confidence in the company's future development [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 78.009 billion yuan, an increase of 2.88% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.601 billion yuan, a decrease of 31% YoY [1] - The company's EPS for the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.22 yuan, a decrease of 43.59% YoY [1] - The company's sales, management, and R&D expense ratio was 4.41%, down 0.36 percentage points YoY, while the financial expense ratio was 2.11%, up 0.38 percentage points YoY [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is forecasted to be 5.5896 billion yuan, 6.20966 billion yuan, and 7.82952 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The company's EPS for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is forecasted to be 0.62 yuan, 0.69 yuan, and 0.86 yuan, respectively [4] Valuation and Ratios - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is forecasted to be 18.30, 16.47, and 13.07, respectively [4] - The company's P/B ratio for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is forecasted to be 0.84, 0.82, and 0.78, respectively [4] - The company's P/S ratio for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is forecasted to be 0.55, 0.52, and 0.49, respectively [4] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is forecasted to be 11.57, 9.86, and 8.36, respectively [4] Industry and Market Position - The company ranks fifth in terms of full-caliber and equity-caliber sales among the top 100 real estate companies tracked by CRIC [1] - The company's land acquisitions in Q3 2024 were concentrated in core first- and second-tier cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Xi'an, and Zhengzhou, maintaining its advantage in high-quality land reserves [1]