Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected price increase of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" subsidy policy, particularly in the mattress segment, which is anticipated to see improved sales and profits in Q4 2024 [2][4]. - The company is actively implementing cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures, aiming for stable and quality growth [3][5]. - The financial forecast has been adjusted due to the current weak operating environment, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 revised to 8.1 billion, 9.1 billion, and 10.3 billion respectively [4][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenues of 1.25 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%, and a net profit of 150 million, down 8.3% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 3.88 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 1.9% year-on-year, while net profit was 520 million, up 0.8% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 49.9%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit margin improving to 11.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has implemented a comprehensive cost reduction and efficiency improvement strategy, leading to a significant decrease in sales expenses and an improvement in net profit margin [3][5]. - The report highlights the importance of precise investment and monthly reviews to drive growth and profitability [3][5]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading high-end mattress brand, with optimistic expectations for increased demand driven by the "old-for-new" initiative [4][6]. - The financial outlook for 2024-2026 indicates a gradual recovery, with projected revenue growth rates of 2.67%, 10.33%, and 11.88% respectively [10].
慕思股份：以旧换新有望带动订单改善