太阳纸业：Q3业绩具韧性，产能稳步扩张

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient performance in Q3 2024 with revenue of 10.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 20.8% to 700 million yuan [1] - The decline in profit is attributed to weak demand, falling paper prices, and rising costs [1] - The company is expanding its production capacity steadily, with several projects expected to come online by 2025, including a new specialty paper project in Shandong and additional production lines in Nanning [2][5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 30.98 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.46 billion yuan, which is a 15.1% increase year-on-year [1] - The company adjusted its profit forecast for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of 3.24 billion, 3.71 billion, and 4.22 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11X, 10X, and 9X [3] Production Capacity Expansion - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with several key projects: 1. The Shandong Yandian plant's 37,000-ton specialty paper project is expected to enter trial production in the first half of 2025 [2] 2. The Nanning project has achieved stable production for its high-end packaging paper lines, with further expansions planned [2] 3. The Laos base has made significant progress in its pulp plantation project, with over 10,050 hectares signed for planting [2] Market Conditions - The cultural paper segment is experiencing weakened profitability, with prices for double glue paper and copper plate paper showing mixed trends [4] - The company has announced a price increase for its non-coated paper products starting November 1, 2024, in anticipation of demand recovery [4]