上海港湾：三季度业绩承压，四季度有望改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 944 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.78%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24.48% to 109 million yuan [1] - The revenue for the third quarter was 314 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.31%, with a net profit of approximately 35.06 million yuan, down 7.90% year-on-year [1] - The decline in revenue is attributed to fewer new orders signed in 2023 and disruptions in the confirmation of major projects, but a recovery in revenue is expected in the fourth quarter due to a significant increase in new orders in the first half of the year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 34.49%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for the third quarter was 30.61%, up 0.96 percentage points year-on-year but down 5.06 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's expense ratio increased due to information technology investments and foreign exchange losses, with a total expense ratio of 20.13% for the first three quarters, up 5.11 percentage points year-on-year [1] Financial Summary - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 205 million yuan, 269 million yuan, and 348 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23, 17, and 14 times based on the stock price as of November 1 [2] - The revenue forecast for 2024 is 1,639 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28.33% [4] - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 4,748.10 million yuan, with a closing price of 19.32 yuan per share [3]