Guangzhou Restaurant(SH:603043) Haitong Securities·2024-11-03 06:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 21.9 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 5.4% to 3.90 billion yuan [5] - The revenue growth was primarily driven by a 0.1% increase in mooncake sales to 14.1 billion yuan and a 17.3% increase in restaurant revenue to 3.7 billion yuan [5] - The company has shown resilience despite a slight decline in performance, with a year-to-date revenue of 41.0 billion yuan, up 5.9%, and a net profit of 4.5 billion yuan, down 8.9% [5] - The gross margin for Q3 was 39.5%, down 2.8 percentage points, attributed to pricing pressures and higher growth in lower-margin restaurant business [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative decline compared to the market index, with a performance drop of -36.69% from October 2023 to January 2024 [2] Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 21.9 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.90 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5.4% year-on-year [5] - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 41.0 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.5 billion yuan, indicating a decline of 8.9% [5] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 39.5%, down from the previous year, due to various operational challenges [5] Business Segments - The mooncake business remained stable with a revenue of 14.1 billion yuan, while the frozen food segment faced challenges with a 4.8% decline [6] - The restaurant segment showed a strong growth of 17.3%, indicating a positive trend in this area [6] Channel and Regional Development - The company’s distribution channels are expanding, with a notable increase in the proportion of business outside Guangdong province [7] - The number of distributors and agents increased to 1,110, with significant growth in regions outside Guangdong [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 51.97 billion yuan, 57.90 billion yuan, and 63.87 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.17 billion yuan, 6.13 billion yuan, and 6.94 billion yuan [8] - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024 is projected to be between 18-22 times, suggesting a reasonable value range of 16.4 to 20.0 yuan per share [8]