Kewell(688551) 华福证券·2024-11-03 08:00Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating with target PE ratios of 31x, 22x, and 15x for 2024-2026 [1] Core Views - Short-term profitability under pressure due to price wars, but long-term growth expected from hydrogen energy and small-power product channels [1] - Revenue forecast for 2024-2026: RMB 580M, 770M, and 1.05B, with net profit of RMB 80M, 110M, and 160M respectively [1] - Company repurchased 329K shares (0.39% of total shares) for RMB 85M, signaling confidence in long-term development [4] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue: RMB 380M (+6.26% YoY), net profit: RMB 50M (-31.45% YoY) [1] - Q3 2024 revenue: RMB 120M (-8.82% YoY), net profit: RMB 10M (-61.10% YoY) [1] - Gross margin for Q1-Q3: 48.98% (-5.62pct YoY), net margin: 13.46% (-7.49pct YoY) [2] - Q3 gross margin: 46.09% (-7.36pct YoY, -3.64pct QoQ) [2] Downstream Drivers - Testing power: Q1-Q3 revenue RMB 283M (75% of total), driven by EV and energy storage sectors [3] - Hydrogen energy: Q1-Q3 revenue RMB 75M (20% of total), with strong customer loyalty and new product launches [3] - Power semiconductors: Q1-Q3 revenue RMB 11M (3% of total), expected to recover with inventory normalization [3] Financial Ratios and Forecasts - 2024-2026 revenue growth: 8.9%, 33.5%, 35.9% [16] - 2024-2026 net profit growth: -34.2%, 44.0%, 44.7% [16] - 2024-2026 gross margin: 48.8%, 49.0%, 49.2% [16] - 2024-2026 ROE: 5.8%, 7.9%, 10.6% [16] Valuation Metrics - 2024-2026 PE ratios: 31x, 22x, 15x [1] - 2024-2026 PB ratios: 1.8x, 1.7x, 1.6x [6]