吉祥航空：Q3铁路客运增速下滑 业绩同比下降

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 32.36 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.02 billion yuan, up 12.4% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 11.49 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.66 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year [1] - Passenger demand continues to grow, although the growth rate in Q3 has slowed down, with national railway passenger volume increasing by 6.8% year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 49.6%, a decrease of 0.84 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to stable costs despite declining revenue [1] - The company’s operating expenses ratio improved, with a decrease of 1.02 percentage points in the period expense ratio to 5.6% in Q3 2024 [1] - The National Day holiday data showed record high passenger numbers, indicating potential for continued profit improvement [1] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 12.83 billion yuan, 14.97 billion yuan, and 16.68 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates [1] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was 32.36 billion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in the domestic railway passenger market [1] - National railway passenger volume reached 3.34 billion, a 13.8% increase year-on-year, while passenger turnover increased by 8.8% [1] - Q3 2024 saw a decline in revenue and net profit, primarily due to weaker passenger volume on the company's line [1] Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 49.6%, with a slight year-on-year decline [1] - The period expense ratio improved to 5.6%, with a notable decrease in financial expenses due to reduced borrowing costs [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 31.8%, down 0.73 percentage points year-on-year [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a flexible pricing mechanism and increasing demand for business travel, which will support future price increases [1] - The performance during the National Day holiday suggests a positive trend for profitability moving forward [1] - The company’s net profit forecasts have been revised downwards, reflecting anticipated challenges in passenger growth rates [1]