GUJING(SZ:000596) Huaan Securities·2024-11-03 08:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its domestic market, with Q3 2024 revenue reaching 5.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.174 billion yuan, up 13.60% [1] - The company is expected to lead the consumption upgrade trend in its province, with a high-quality completion of its annual targets [1] - The revenue growth for the original liquor series is projected to be around 15%-20% in Q3 2024, contributing significantly to overall growth [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 19.069 billion yuan, an increase of 19.53% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.746 billion yuan, up 24.49% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 1.55 percentage points to 77.87%, attributed to a shift in product structure towards the 100-300 yuan price range [1] - The net profit margin improved by 0.17 percentage points to 23.14% in Q3 2024 due to optimized expense allocation [1] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 23.946 billion yuan in 2024, 26.701 billion yuan in 2025, and 29.888 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.2%, 11.5%, and 11.9% respectively [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.615 billion yuan in 2024, 6.454 billion yuan in 2025, and 7.433 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 22.4%, 14.9%, and 15.2% [2][3] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 18, 16, and 14 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][2]