Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) (603816) 国信证券·2024-11-03 08:17Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - Domestic sales under pressure due to real estate downturn and weak demand, while foreign trade continues to grow [1] - Q3 revenue declined by 6.9% YoY to 4.89 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping by 19.9% YoY to 460 million [1] - Gross margin slightly decreased, but expense ratios improved [1] - The "trade-in" policy is expected to stimulate domestic demand and improve domestic sales in Q4 [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue was 13.8 billion, down 2.4% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.36 billion, down 9.5% YoY [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was 4.89 billion, down 6.9% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 460 million, down 19.9% YoY [1] Profitability - Q1-Q3 2024 gross margin was 31.9%, down 0.5 pct YoY, with net margin at 9.8%, down 0.8 pct YoY [1] - Q3 2024 gross margin was 29.8%, down 4.0 pct YoY, with net margin at 9.7%, down 1.4 pct YoY [1] Expense Ratios - Q1-Q3 2024 sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios were 15.9%/2.2%/1.8%/0.1%, with sales expense ratio down 0.3 pct YoY [1] - Q3 2024 sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios were 17.9%, down 2.7 pct YoY, with sales expense ratio down 2.4 pct YoY [1] Industry and Policy Impact - The "trade-in" policy, supported by 150 billion in special treasury bonds, is expected to boost domestic demand in Q4 [1] - The company launched a nationwide "trade-in season" in September, offering up to 2,000 yuan in subsidies to consumers [1] Financial Forecasts Revenue and Profit Forecasts - 2024-2026 revenue forecasts are 19.0/20.7/22.4 billion, with YoY changes of -1.1%/8.8%/8.4% [2] - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders forecasts are 1.85/2.09/2.30 billion, with YoY changes of -7.6%/12.6%/10.1% [2] Key Financial Ratios - 2024-2026 EPS forecasts are 2.26/2.54/2.80 yuan, with PE ratios of 14.7/13.0/11.8x [2] - 2024-2026 ROE forecasts are 17.7%/18.5%/19.0%, with EBIT margins of 11.1%/12.5%/13.2% [2] Valuation Metrics - 2024-2026 EV/EBITDA forecasts are 13.2/11.1/9.8x, with P/B ratios of 2.60/2.41/2.25 [2] Historical Performance Revenue and Profit Trends - 2018-2023 revenue grew from 18.0 billion to 19.2 billion, with a CAGR of 1.3% [6] - 2018-2023 net profit attributable to shareholders grew from 1.81 billion to 2.01 billion, with a CAGR of 2.1% [8] Profitability Trends - 2018-2023 gross margin fluctuated between 31% and 33%, with net margin ranging from 9.8% to 10.2% [9] - Q3 2024 gross margin was 29.8%, down 4.0 pct YoY, with net margin at 9.7%, down 1.4 pct YoY [1]