JAC(600418) 华金证券·2024-11-03 09:11Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming launch of the luxury electric vehicle "Zun Jie" in collaboration with Huawei, which is anticipated to significantly boost its passenger car business [2][5][8]. - Despite a slight decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, the company has shown a remarkable increase in net profit, primarily due to improved product and debt structure optimization [3][4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 32.271 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.02%, while net profit reached 625 million yuan, an increase of 239.86% [2][3]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 10.931 billion yuan, down 5.52% year-on-year, but net profit surged by 1028.38% to 324 million yuan, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [4][8]. Sales Performance - Passenger car sales decreased by 17.0% year-on-year to 131,400 units in the first nine months of 2024, while commercial vehicle sales increased by 6.54% to 184,000 units, supported by strong export demand [3][8]. - The company’s commercial vehicle segment is expected to remain stable due to favorable export conditions, with projected revenues for 2024-2026 of 22.569 billion yuan, 26.935 billion yuan, and 29.452 billion yuan, respectively [11][12]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates total revenue of 46.079 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 2.4%, followed by 28.7% in 2025 and 23.2% in 2026 [8][13]. - The introduction of the "Zun Jie" model is expected to reshape the company's passenger vehicle segment, with the first model set to launch in spring 2025 [5][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report estimates earnings per share (EPS) of 0.32 yuan, 0.43 yuan, and 0.52 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 116.1x, 86.4x, and 72.3x [9][15].