[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨江淮汽车（600418.SH） [Table_Title] 江淮汽车 2025 年业绩预告点评：Q4 经营大幅 改善，尊界开启新周期 报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 1 月 16 日，公司发布 2025 年度业绩预告，预计归属于母公司所有者的净亏损 16.80 亿元左 右，上年同期为亏损 17.84 亿元。我们预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为- 16.80/37.98/74.62 亿元，当前市值对应估值 PE 分别为-/28.33/14.42X，基于公司尊界系列车 型加速放量，超豪华自主崛起助力公司业绩持续保持高增长，维持"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张永乾 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030002 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 江淮汽车（600418.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 江淮汽 ...

导读：智通财经1月19日投资避雷针，近日，A股及海外市场潜在风险事件如下。国内经济信息方面包括：1）小米、OPPO、vivo、传音四家手机厂商下调 全年出货预期；2）光伏厂称银价让原料价格涨近两成；公司方面重点关注包括：1）胜宏科技2025年净利同比预增260%-295%，Q4业绩低于预期；2）剑桥 科技2025年净利同比预增51%-67%，Q4业绩低于预期；海外市场重点关注包括：1）上周五美股三大指数集体收跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.15%；2） 特朗普因格陵兰岛向欧洲8国加税，欧盟多国考虑对输欧美国商品加征关税进行反制。 1月17日00时55分，我国在西昌卫星发射中心使用长征三号乙运载火箭发射实践三十二号卫星，火箭飞行异常，发射任务失利。具体原因正在进一步分析排 查。 公司预警 1、胜宏科技：2025年净利同比预增260%-295%，Q4业绩低于预期。 2、剑桥科技：2025年净利同比预增51%-67%，Q4业绩低于预期。 3、瑞迈特：股东能金公司及其一致行动人、合晅投资及其一致行动人拟合计减持不超4.98%股份。 4、有研硅：控股股东及其一致行动人拟合计减持不超3%股份。 5、伟思医疗：实控人一致行 ...

2025年12月份，我国新能源重卡整体实销超4.53万辆，同比暴涨198%，月销量纪录被强 势刷新。作为新能源重卡市场占比最高的细分领域，新能源牵引车市场自然也创造了多项新 纪录。 请看第一商用车网的分析报道。 12月实销3.47万辆，同比增长198%， 渗透率近70% 2025年12月份，新能源牵引车在新能源重卡市场占到76.62%的份额，较上月 （79.50%）有所下降。2025年全年，新能源牵引车在新能源重卡市场占到76.36%的份 额，较2024年全年67.99%的占比明显提升（提升了接近10个百分点，如上图）。根据第 一商用车网的观察， 2024年下半年，牵引车在新能源重卡单月销量结构占比持续高位， 8-12月占比均超过70%；2025年更是有11个月占比超过70%，自6月份开始占比一直高 于75%。从这一角度看，2025年新能源牵引车市场显然是延续了上年的良好势头。 从最近几年国内新能源牵引车销量月度走势图可见，代表2025年的红色柱体比之前任何一 年都"高"出非常大一截。自2025年3月份起，新能源牵引车市场已连续10个月销量破万， 刚刚过去的12月份更是把最高月销量纪录强势提升到3.47万辆， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the automotive industry, expecting a rebound in vehicle sales in Q1 and focusing on investments in intelligent driving, robotics, and liquid cooling technologies [3]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing significant dynamics, including sales, pricing, exports, and robotics developments [2]. - The report highlights that January's early sales data shows a substantial year-on-year decline, primarily due to subsidy reductions and rising vehicle prices, leading to consumer hesitation [5]. - The report anticipates that the pressure on vehicle prices will be managed through strict enforcement of anti-competitive practices, aiming to stabilize prices and profit margins [5]. - The export market is expected to grow rapidly, supported by agreements that lower trade barriers for electric vehicles, enhancing profitability for manufacturers and dealers [5]. - The robotics sector is gaining traction, with the Optimus V3 generating market excitement and expectations for product launches [5]. Data Tracking - In early January, the average discount rate remained stable, with a 9.6% increase year-on-year, and the average discount amount reached 22,259 yuan, up by 2,192 yuan year-on-year [4]. - December's wholesale vehicle sales were reported at 2.85 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.7% and a month-on-month decline of 6.3% [4]. - Notable sales performance in December included significant year-on-year growth for new energy vehicle manufacturers like NIO and Li Auto, while traditional automakers like SAIC and Changan showed mixed results [6]. Industry News - The report discusses various industry developments, including the price commitments for electric vehicles between China and Europe, which aim to facilitate trade [27]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is focusing on enhancing the competitiveness of the new energy vehicle sector and regulating market practices to prevent price wars [27]. - Recent data indicates a significant drop in retail sales of passenger vehicles in early January, with a 32% year-on-year decline [27]. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase of 0.71%, ranking 8th out of 29 sectors, while the overall market indices showed mixed results [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The Chinese heavy truck market's total sales for 2025 reached 1.145 million units, marking a 27% increase from the previous year [5][13] - The China Automobile Association forecasts total automobile sales in 2026 to be 34.75 million units, a 1% year-on-year growth [15] - The demand for high-end luxury passenger cars in China is exceeding expectations, with a favorable competitive landscape [7] Industry News - Tesla will stop selling Full Self-Driving (FSD) after February 14, transitioning to a monthly subscription model [14] - Shanghai aims to achieve large-scale application of high-level autonomous driving scenarios by 2027 [16] - Great Wall Motors launched the world's first native AI all-power platform "Guiyuan," supporting multiple power systems [17] - Canada has reduced tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 6.1%, eliminating the previous 100% additional tax [18] Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector outperformed the market with a weekly increase of 0.71%, ranking 8th among A-share primary industries [25] - The passenger vehicle index decreased by 1.87%, while the commercial vehicle index increased by 5.53% [6] - The automotive parts index rose by 1.26%, with notable gains in the electric control systems and lightweight components [6][35] Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, recommended stocks include JAC Motors and Seres, with beneficiaries being Geely Automobile [7] - In the parts sector, recommended stocks include Desay SV Automotive, Zhejiang Xiantong, and Meili Technology, with beneficiaries being Weichai Power and others [7]

财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 天眼查资料显示，安徽江淮汽车集团股份有限公司，成立于1999年，位于合肥市，是一家以从事汽车制 造业为主的企业。企业注册资本218400.9791万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，安徽江淮汽车集团股 份有限公司共对外投资了48家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息946条，专利信 息5000条，此外企业还拥有行政许可672个。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 国家知识产权局信息显示，安徽江淮汽车集团股份有限公司申请一项名为"基于多平台协同的汽车遮阳 帘压力测试方法、系统及应用"的专利，公开号CN121323950A，申请日期为2025年11月。 专利摘要显示，本发明属于汽车零部件压力测试技术领域，提供基于多平台协同的汽车遮阳帘压力测试 方法、系统及应用，包括智能感知控制终端响应于Python分析平台发出的开启指令，控制遮阳帘开启并 实时采集第一电信号，通过串口传输至LabVIEW平台，经TCP协议转发回Python分析平台，判断遮阳帘 是否达到完全开启状态；响应关闭指令，控制遮阳帘关闭并实 ...

历年财报显示，该公司近年业绩波动较大，净利波动如同坐"过山车"。2020年至2024年5年间，该公司盈利的年份有三年，盈利时年净利均在1.5亿元~2亿 元左右，但2022年和2024年该公司业绩急转直下，净利亏损额达到15.83亿元和17.84亿元，净利增长率为-891.24%和-1277.59%。综合算来，该公司2020年 至2024年五年间共亏掉了超28亿元。而2024年、2025年该公司已是连亏两年。 江淮汽车发布的2025年三季报显示，公司营业收入为308.7亿元，同比下降4.1%；归母净利润亏损14.3亿元，同比下降329.4%；扣非归母净利润自去年同 期亏损2.31亿元变为亏损17.6亿元，亏损额进一步扩大；经营现金流净额为-24.48亿元，同比下降214.6%。 2026年1月8日，江淮汽车发布经营数据公告显示，2025年12月销量为3.73万辆，同比增长42.24%。2025年1~12月，公司累计销量为38.41万辆，同比下降 4.72%。新能源乘用车12月销量为6007辆，同比增长92.59%；2025年1~12月累计销量为2.89万辆，同比下降7.23%。 另外，2025年11月11日，据 ...

回溯上年同期经营业绩和财务状况，江淮汽车2024年度利润总额为-187,426.6万元，归属于母公司所有者的净利润为-178,416万元，归属于母公司所有者的扣 除非经常性损益的净利润为-274,145.14万元，每股收益为-0.82元。 对于2025年度业绩预亏的主要原因，公告明确两点：一是受国际形势日趋复杂、境外汽车市场竞争日益加剧影响，公司出口业务有所下滑；二是2025年公司 联营企业大众安徽经营业绩出现亏损，导致报告期内公司确认对大众安徽的投资收益为-10.8亿元左右。 I And Case The The F 3 Party 4 7 2 6 T 1月16日，江淮汽车发布2025年年度业绩预亏公告，预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润-168,000万元左右，与上年同期法定披露数据相比，减 亏10,416万元左右；预计实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润-247,000万元左右。本次预计的业绩未经注册会计师审计。 ...

重要新闻提示 证监会：及时做好逆周期调节，坚决防止市场大起大落 证监会就衍生品市场规章征求意见，系统规范衍生品市场，限制过度投机行为 华夏银行将分红15.91亿元，股权登记日为1月22日 财经新闻 1. 证监会1月16日消息，1月15日，中国证监会召开2026年系统工作会议，总结2025年工作，分析当前形 势，研究部署2026年工作。中国证监会党委书记、主席吴清出席会议并讲话。 会议强调，坚持稳字当头，巩固市场稳中向好势头；坚持改革攻坚，不断提高服务高质量发展质效；坚 持依法从严，着力提升监管执法有效性和震慑力；坚持固本强基，促进上市公司价值成长和治理提升； 坚持做强主场，推动资本市场双向开放迈向更深层次、更高水平。 抓紧推动合格境外投资者优化方案落地，增强开放环境下监管和风险防范能力 2. 证监会1月16日消息，为贯彻《国务院关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》 部署要求，落实《中华人民共和国期货和衍生品法》规定，促进衍生品市场规范健康发展，证监会在总 结实践经验的基础上，起草形成了《衍生品交易监督管理办法（试行）（征求意见稿）》，现向社会公 开征求意见。 3. 1月16日，上交所发布的数 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized maintaining market stability and enhancing monitoring and regulation to prevent excessive speculation and market manipulation [3] - Canada and China reached a consensus on deepening economic and trade cooperation, signing the "China-Canada Economic and Trade Cooperation Roadmap," which includes an annual quota of 49,000 electric vehicles from China with a 6.1% most-favored-nation tariff [3] Group 2 - The State Council of China is focusing on boosting consumption and has outlined measures to clear overdue payments to businesses and ensure wage payments to migrant workers [4] - The Ministry of Commerce announced stronger support for green and smart product consumption through a recycling program for consumer goods [4] Group 3 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is working on optimizing the layout and structure of state-owned enterprises, focusing on enhancing core business strengths [5] - The Market Supervision Administration has introduced new guidelines for recognizing illegal gains in market regulation, effective from March 20 [5] Group 4 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,101.91 points, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw slight declines [6] - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.29% but showing a weekly gain of 2.34% [7] Group 5 - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development highlighted significant investment opportunities in urban renewal projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [11] - The Ministry of Finance extended tax incentives for public rental housing, exempting certain taxes to promote construction [11] Group 6 - The China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance reported a 60.1% year-on-year increase in the cumulative production of power and energy storage batteries in 2025 [12] - The China Securities Association announced new rules allowing certain individual investors to redeem public pension fund shares early under specific conditions [12] Group 7 - The U.S. Federal Reserve officials indicated that current monetary policy remains moderately restrictive, with potential adjustments depending on labor market conditions [15][16] - The U.S. Senate approved funding for federal research institutions, rejecting previous budget cuts proposed by the Trump administration [16] Group 8 - The Chinese bond market showed signs of warming, with yields generally declining and the central bank conducting a net injection of liquidity [20] - Barclays analysts forecast a total issuance of U.S. corporate bonds to reach $2.46 trillion in 2026, marking an 11.8% increase year-on-year [20]