证券之星消息，1月22日商用车板块较上一交易日上涨0.14%，金龙汽车领涨。当日上证指数报收于4122.58，上涨0.14%。深证成指报收于 14327.05，上涨0.5%。商用车板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600686 | 金龙汽车 | 21.97 | 8.82% | 51.32万 | | 10.87亿 | | 600166 | 福田汽车 | 3.28 | 5.47% | 282.77万 | | 9.08亿 | | 301039 | 中隼车辆 | 9.72 | 2.53% | - 20.11万 | | 1.94亿 | | 000868 | 安凯客车 | 5.05 | 2.02% | 16.63万 | | 8344.34万 | | 000957 | 中通客车 | 12.01 | 1.95% | 26.40万 | | 3.14亿 | | 600303 | 曙光股份 | 3.34 | 1.83% | 18.19万 | | 6029.37万 | ...

2026 年 01 月 22 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2026 年第 12 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2025Q4 业绩&2026Q1 指引超预期，资本支出攀升进入加速扩产期--台积电/海外(TSM/2180) 点评报告（港 股美股） 中价格带茶饮强阿尔法，成长空间广阔--古茗/社会服务(01364/2146) 点评报告（港股美股） 2025Q4 业绩预计同环比减亏明显，2026 年新车周期可期--江淮汽车/商用车(600418/212806) 公司点评 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、2025Q4 业绩&2026Q1 指引超预期，资本支出攀升进入加速扩产期-- 台积电/海外(TSM/2180) 点评报告（港股美股） 分析师：陈梦竹 S0350521090003 联系人：邱怡瑄 S0350124070030 事件: 2026 年 1 月 15 日，台积电发布 2025 年 Q4 财报：2025Q4，公司实现收入 10,460.9 亿元新台币/337.3 亿美 元（新台币价 ...

2025Q4 公司业绩同环比改善明显，2025 年全年业绩同比减亏。2026年1 月17 日，江淮汽车公告2025 年 业绩预告：公司预计2025 年归母净利润-16.8 亿元左右，较上年同期减亏1.04 亿元左右。公司2025 年前 三季度归母净利润-14.34 亿元，预计2025Q4 归母净利润-2.46 亿元，同环比分别收窄21.63/ 4.16 亿元， 改善明显。公司2025年联营企业大众安徽业绩出现亏损，2025 年公司对大众安徽的投资收益为-10.8 亿 元。2025 年前三季度联营与合资企业的投资收益为-2.1 亿元。 2025Q4 业绩环比改善预计受益于尊界S800 放量，2025 年12 月尊界S800 销量超5000 台创新高。根据懂 车帝信息，尊界S800 于2025年12 月销售超5 千台，达5,053 台，创新高。2025Q4 共销售9,633台，较 2025Q3 销量（3,522 台），增加173.5%。截至2026 年1月初，尊界S800 已连续3 个月稳居70 万元以上 豪华轿车榜首。 华为高端车尊界的合作，有望促进公司高端+智能化加速。公司与华为深度合作，打造的首款百万级超 ...

作为大众汽车继上汽大众、一汽-大众之后的在华第三家合资公司，大众安徽自2020年被大众控股75% 后，被市场寄予"金标大众"厚望，2024年7月推出的首款车型ID.与众市场表现平淡，杰兰路数据显示， 2025年该车型累计销量不足万辆。 销量端的持续下滑加剧了业绩压力。2025年江淮汽车全年销量38.41万辆，较上年的40.31万辆下滑 4.72%，这是继2024年销量同比下滑7.42%后的连续第二年下滑。 安徽江淮汽车（600418）集团股份有限公司（下称"江淮汽车"）近日发布了2025年度业绩预亏公告。 数据显示，公司预计全年实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为-16.8亿元左右，较上年同期的-17.84亿元 减亏约1.04亿元；但扣除非经常性损益后的净利润亏损额进一步扩大至24.7亿元左右。 这是江淮汽车连续第二年出现净利润亏损，2024年其归母净利润已由盈转亏至17.84亿元，营业收入 421.16亿元同比下滑6.28%。 业绩预告披露前，江淮汽车三季报已显颓势。 2025年前三季度，江淮汽车的营业收入为308.7亿元，同比下降4.1%；归母净利润亏损14.3亿元，同比 降幅达329.4%；经营活动现金流净 ...

智通财经APP获悉，1月21日，乘联分会发布车市扫描。1月1-18日，全国乘用车市场零售67.9万辆，同比去年1月同期下降28%，较上月同期下降37%，今 年以来累计零售67.9万辆，同比下降28%；1月1-18日，全国乘用车厂商批发74.0万辆，同比去年下1月同期下降35%，较上月同期下降30%，今年以来累计 批发74.0万辆，同比下降35%。 1月1-18日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售31.2万辆，同比去年1月同期下降16%，较上月同期下降52%，今年以来累计零售31.2万辆，同比下降16%；1月1- 18日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发34.8万辆，同比去年1月同期下降23%，较上月同期下降46%，今年以来累计批发34.8万辆，同比下降23%。 截止最新数据，1月第一至二周全国纯燃料轻型车生产9.1万辆，同比去年1月同期下降85%，较上月同期下降77%。目前1月第一至二周混合动力与插混总 体生产13.9万辆，同比去年1月同期下降65%，较上月同期下降75%。 2026年1月全国乘用车厂商批发销量走势 1月第一周全国乘用车厂商日均批发3.5万辆，同比去年1月同期下降40%，较上月同期下降30%。 2026年1月 ...

证券之星消息，1月21日商用车板块较上一交易日上涨0.74%，江淮汽车领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4116.94，上涨0.08%。深证成指报收于14255.12，上涨0.7%。商用车板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600418 | 江淮汽车 | 52.45 | 2.84% | 61.84万 | 32.09 Z | | 000951 | 中國車汽 | 17.30 | 1.35% | 16.26万 | 2.80亿 | | 600166 | 福田汽车 | 3.11 | 1.30% | 145.33万 | 4.50亿 | | 000957 | 中通客车 | 11.78 | 0.43% | 15.05万 | 1.77亿 | | 600303 | 曙光股份 | 3.28 | 0.31% | 13.66万 | 4445.38万 | | 000800 | 一汽解放 | 6.90 | 0.29% | 13.92万 | 9615.18万 | | 600375 | 汉马科技 | 6 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Yaxia Hydropower Project, with an expected investment of over RMB 2 trillion, will significantly boost the demand for high - end and large - scale construction machinery, serving as a key investment catalyst for the construction machinery industry [1][5][7] - The 14th Five - Year Plan sets the tone for the industry, promoting original innovation and the development of strategic emerging industries. The equipment replacement demand in the machinery industry is expected to be gradually released, benefiting cyclical sectors such as construction machinery [1][12] - China's construction machinery export data has been growing rapidly. The Chinese market is at a cyclical inflection point, and exports are expected to rise from $234 billion in 2024 to $570 billion in 2030. Domestic companies' overseas revenue has increased significantly [1][17][22] - The CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index allows for one - click allocation of core construction machinery assets. It has high long - term returns, high volatility, and significant event - driven characteristics. The performance of its constituent stocks is expected to continue to improve [1][34][56] - The Huaxia CSI Construction Machinery ETF closely tracks the CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and error [1][68] Summary by Directory 1. The 14th Five - Year Plan Sets the Tone for the Industry, and Domestic Brands Accelerate Overseas Expansion 1.1 The Yaxia Hydropower Project Starts, and Trillion - Dollar Investment Creates a Century - Long Project - The Yaxia Hydropower Project officially started in 2025. Its construction plan can be traced back to 2007, and it entered the implementation phase in 2024 [5] - Compared with the Three Gorges Project, the Yaxia Hydropower Project may have a dynamic investment of over RMB 2 trillion, and most of the investment will be used for power station construction and power transmission projects [7][9] 1.2 The 14th Five - Year Plan Sets the Tone for the Industry, and the Domestic and Overseas Sales of Excavators Continue to Improve Synchronously - The 14th Five - Year Plan emphasizes original innovation and the development of strategic emerging industries. The equipment replacement demand in the machinery industry is expected to be released, benefiting cyclical sectors [12] - In November 2025, the sales of various excavators reached 20,027 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.90%. Domestic sales increased by 9.11% year - on - year, and exports increased by 18.84% year - on - year, indicating the recovery of the industry [13] 1.3 The Global Construction Machinery Market is Vast, and China's Export Data Shows High Growth - The global construction machinery market is expected to grow from $213.5 billion in 2024 to $296.1 billion in 2030. The Chinese market is at a cyclical inflection point, expected to rise from $234 billion in 2024 to $570 billion in 2030 [17] - The global excavator market is expected to reach $92.8 billion in 2030. In China, excavators will lead the industry recovery with a growth rate of 16.8% [17] - Overseas markets account for nearly 90% of the global construction machinery market. China's construction machinery export volume has increased from $18.894 billion in 2020 to $52.829 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 29.33% [22] 1.4 The Construction Machinery Cycle Reaches the Bottom and Rebounds, and Domestic Brands Accelerate Overseas Expansion - The excavator industry has experienced two cycles and is now in a new upward cycle. In 2024, the annual sales volume increased by 3.1% year - on - year, and from January to November 2025, the growth rate expanded to 16.7% [24] - The overseas revenue of the four major domestic construction machinery manufacturers has increased significantly. In 2024, the overseas revenue ratios of Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion exceeded 50% [27] - International giants still dominate the global market. Chinese construction machinery manufacturers such as XCMG, Sany Heavy Industry, and Zoomlion still have room for improvement in global market share [29] 2. The CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index: One - Click Allocation of Core Construction Machinery Assets 2.1 Index Compilation: Selecting Core Leaders in the Construction Machinery Industry - The CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index was released on September 27, 2021, with a base date of June 30, 2016. It selects 50 representative listed companies in the construction machinery field as samples to reflect the overall performance of construction machinery - related stocks [34] - The index samples are adjusted semi - annually, on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [36] 2.2 Industry Market Value Characteristics: High Concentration in the Construction Machinery Sector, with Market Value Structure Dominated by Leading Companies - As of January 6, 2026, the index has 50 constituent stocks, with an average total market value of RMB 28.131 billion. Five stocks have a market value of over RMB 100 billion [37] - The top ten constituent stocks of the index account for 72.55% of the total weight. The top three stocks by weight are XCMG, Sany Heavy Industry, and Weichai Power [43] - The index focuses on the construction machinery, auto parts, and special equipment sectors, with a combined proportion of over 87%. The construction machinery industry has the highest weight, at 61.99% [46] 2.3 High Elasticity, Offensive Nature, and Long - Term Allocation Value - In the rising market, the CSI Construction Machinery Index has strong explosive power. For example, from January 31 to April 19, 2019, its cumulative return was 44.07%, significantly higher than that of broad - based indices [50] - Since the base date, the cumulative return of the index has reached 153.95%, and the annualized return is 10.60%, far exceeding that of major broad - based indices. It has high volatility and a large maximum drawdown, indicating its high - elasticity offensive characteristics [56] - The index shows a pattern of leading in the up - cycle and adjusting in the down - cycle. In 2019 and 2025, its annual returns were significantly higher than those of broad - based indices [62] 2.4 High - Level Operation Supported by Positive Expectations, Highlighting the Attention of Sector Allocation - As of January 5, 2026, the P/E ratio of the CSI Construction Machinery Index was 24.13, with a historical quantile of 79.59%, and the P/B ratio was 2.26, with a historical quantile of 94.49%. The valuation is at a relatively high level [65] - The market's positive expectations for the industry have been reflected in the valuation, highlighting the long - term certainty of sector allocation [65] 3. Huaxia CSI Construction Machinery ETF - The Huaxia CSI Construction Machinery ETF (fund code: 515970) closely tracks the CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and error. It started raising funds on January 19, 2026, and ended on January 30, 2026, with Wang Xinwei as the fund manager [68]

Core Insights - The overall vehicle sales for 20 A and H-share listed automotive manufacturers in December 2025 totaled 2.2255 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.64% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.77% [10][11] - In December 2025, 16 companies reported sales of approximately 1.2532 million new energy vehicles (NEVs), marking a year-on-year increase of 1.99% and a penetration rate of about 58% [10][11] Group 1: Overall Vehicle Sales - The total vehicle sales for the 20 listed companies in December 2025 were 2.2255 million units, down 7.64% year-on-year and down 6.77% month-on-month [10][11] - For the entire year of 2025, these companies sold over 23.5 million vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.86% [11] - Companies such as Jianghuai Automobile, Seres, and Jiangling Automobile saw an acceleration in sales growth in December compared to November, while companies like Shuguang and Zhongtong Bus experienced a slowdown [10][11] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Sales - In December 2025, the total sales of NEVs reached approximately 1.2532 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 1.99% and a month-on-month decrease of 8.93% [5][15] - The NEV penetration rate for December was about 57.96%, a decrease of 0.85 percentage points from November [15] - BYD, SAIC Group, and Geely were the top three companies in NEV sales for December, with significant growth observed in companies like BAIC Blue Valley and Jianghuai Automobile, which reported growth rates exceeding 70% [7][17] Group 3: Company-Specific Performance - BYD led the sales in December with 420,398 units sold, although this represented an 18.34% decline year-on-year [4][14] - SAIC Group and Changan Automobile followed with sales of 399,449 units and 254,843 units, respectively, with Changan showing a slight year-on-year increase of 1.66% [4][14] - Geely's December sales increased by 12.74% year-on-year, totaling 236,817 units, while GAC Group experienced a significant decline of 33.82% in sales [4][15]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively closed lower on January 20, with a total market turnover of approximately 2.8 trillion yuan, and over 2,200 stocks rose, including 63 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] Institutional Ratings - A total of 11 buy ratings were issued by institutions today, covering 9 stocks, with Hunan YN and Keda receiving 2 buy ratings each [2] - Among the stocks with buy ratings, 6 companies provided earnings forecasts for 2025, with Hunan YN expected to see a net profit increase of 114.81% year-on-year, followed by Zhenyu Technology and Keda with expected increases of 106.74% and 59.82% respectively [2] Industry Focus - The power equipment industry was the most favored by institutions, with 4 stocks including Hunan YN and Keda listed [2] - The automotive and food & beverage industries also attracted institutional attention, each having 2 stocks featured [2] Institutional Trading - In the top trading list, 17 stocks had net buying amounts exceeding 10 million yuan, with Hunan Baiyin leading at 80.83 million yuan, followed by Tongyu Communications at 55.55 million yuan [4] - Among the net selling stocks, Sanwei Communication faced the highest net sell of 194 million yuan [4] Northbound Capital - 12 stocks on the northbound trading list saw net buying, with Tongyu Communications leading at 97.57 million yuan, followed by Tiantong Co. and Hunan Baiyin, both exceeding 60 million yuan [6] Company Announcements - ST Saiwei (300044) announced an expected net profit loss of 720 million to 1.02 billion yuan for 2025, influenced by litigation and arbitration judgments [7] - Kangxin New Materials (600076) plans to acquire 51% of Wuxi Yubang Semiconductor Technology for 392 million yuan, marking its expansion into the semiconductor sector [8] - Huadian Technology (601226) signed a procurement contract worth approximately 374 million yuan for a wind-solar hydrogen project [8] - China Merchants Energy (601872) plans to build 4 container ships with a total investment of up to 1.324 billion yuan [9] - Anhui Construction (600502) received project bids totaling 13.76 million yuan for two projects [9]

Investment Highlights - The passenger car sector is expected to see a recovery in Q1 2026 due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles that are less sensitive to policy changes, such as Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, BAIC Blue Valley, Seres, and Li Auto [2][7] - For exports, priority should be given to leading companies with established overseas systems and proven execution capabilities, including BYD, Great Wall Motors, Chery, Leap Motor, Xpeng, SAIC Motor, and Changan Automobile [2][7] Heavy Truck Sector - In 2025, wholesale heavy truck sales reached 1.144 million units, up 26.8% year-on-year, with domestic sales of 799,000 units, up 32.8%, and exports of 341,000 units, up 17.2% [3][37] - The expected domestic sales for heavy trucks in 2026 is optimistic, projected at 800,000 to 850,000 units, a 3% increase year-on-year [3][37] - Recommended leading heavy truck companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, Foton Motor, FAW Jiefang, and CIMC Vehicles [3][37] Bus Sector - The implementation of the vehicle replacement policy in 2026 is slightly better than expected, with bus sales in 2025 projected at 38,000 units, a 25% increase year-on-year [3][37] - For 2026, bus sales are expected to grow to 40,000 units, a 5% increase year-on-year, supported by the number of buses over eight years old that need replacement [3][37] - Recommended leading bus companies include Yutong Bus, King Long Motor, and Zhongtong Bus [3][37] Motorcycle Sector - The motorcycle industry is projected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year, with large-displacement motorcycles expected to reach 1.26 million units, a 31% increase [4][34] - Domestic sales of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to grow slightly to 430,000 units in 2026, a 5% increase year-on-year, while exports are projected to reach 830,000 units, a 50% increase [4][34] - Recommended leading motorcycle companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [4][34]