目录 整车主线周报： 本周SW乘用车表现较好，原材料及汇兑压力依然明显 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2026年3月9日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 板块最新观点 2 证券研究报告 （ ◼ 乘用车观点更新：短期来看，行业补贴政策已落地，看好观望需求转化下26Q1乘用车景气度复苏，坚定看好乘 用车板块。全年维度来看：国内选抗波动+出口选确定性。国内关注高端电动化赛道中对政策扰动不敏感的个股 江淮汽车，以及高端化有望放量的吉利汽车/长城汽车/北汽蓝谷/赛力斯/理想等；出口主线优先配置海外体系 成熟、执行能力已验证的头部车企，优选比亚迪/长城汽车/奇瑞汽车，以及零跑/小鹏/上汽集团/长安汽车等。 ◼ 重卡观点更新：回顾2025：25年全年批发114.4万，同比+26.8%，内销79.9万，同比+32.8%，出口34.1万， 同比+17.2%，全年内销及出口超市场年初预期。25年初国四及以下营运重卡保有量69万辆，估算25年底淘汰 至45-50万辆，25年全年淘汰21万辆，25年全年内销政策拉动+自然需求回升共振。展望2026 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车行业新车跟踪报告 推荐（维持） 3 月重点关注智界 V9 及极氪 8X 行业研究 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -3.5% | -4.3% | -9.1% | | 相对表现 | -2.1% | 1.3% | 3.2% | -15% -2% 10% 22% 25/03 25/05 25/08 25/10 25/12 26/03 2025-03-10~2026-03-06 汽车 沪深300 相关研究报告 汽车 2026 年 03 月 09 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张程航 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519070003 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 225 | 0.03 | | 总市值(亿元) | 30,810.37 | 3.80 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 23,623.17 | 3.72 | 相对指数表现 《【华创汽车】新车跟踪：4 月上海车 ...

据第一商用车网统计，在2026年2月（2026年2月2日-2026年3月1日）的4周内，国内9家主流轻卡企业（或品牌）的"轻卡第一影响 力指数"总得分为1305分，环比2026年1月（2025年12月29日-2026年2月1日）的5周得分（1764）下降了26%，同比2025年2月 （2025年2月3日-2025年3月2日）的4周得分（1397分）下降了6.6%。 2月因春节假期的影响，"轻卡第一影响力指数"总得分出现下滑，但2月份依然不乏传播热点，大单交付、新车上市、新能源车型推广等 活动同样进行中，还有各品牌的多场新春送福利活动举行。 江淮交车忙 东风活动收官 重汽送福利 2月，马年开局之际，江淮1卡乘势而上、捷报频传，近百辆各系明星车型在全国多省市批量交付，覆盖冷链、学校团餐、快递、轻工业 产品运输等多元物流场景。15辆恺达EX6顺利交付福州某公司，11辆帅铃交付石家庄客户，5辆帅铃S9冷藏车也在石家庄顺利交付，绍 兴某物流公司批量采购10辆骏铃V7用于轻纺原材料及成品配送业务。同时，江淮1卡向绍兴另一物流公司交付8辆帅铃车型，20辆骏铃 V7冷藏车则正式交付上海某物流租赁公司，云南也有10辆江淮1卡冷 ...

汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 乘用车需求有望边际改善，关注燃气发电 链、优质整车及汽零 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，预计部分强α汽零公司有望抵御行业风险，实现营收及盈利增长；数 据中心液冷及燃气发电产业链、能确定进入特斯拉、Figure、智元、宇树等机器人配套产 业链的汽零及高级别自动驾驶产业链将持续迎来催化。建议持续关注燃气发电机/柴发产 业链、人形机器人链、液冷产业链、出海链、智驾产业链公司。 燃气发电机相关标的：银轮股份、潍柴动力；液冷相关标的：英维克、银轮股份、拓普 集团、飞龙股份、川环科技等；机器人相关标的：新泉股份、拓普集团、银轮股份、岱 美股份、三花智控、浙江荣泰、旭升集团、嵘泰股份、斯菱智驱、爱柯迪、精锻科技、 博俊科技、沪光股份等；智驾相关标的：经纬恒润、伯特利、德赛西威等；整车：比亚 迪、上汽集团、江淮汽车、赛力斯等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 08 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | 执业证书编号：S0860512060001 | ...

2026年2月份，我国新能源重卡整体销量超7000辆，同比小增9%，连增势头继续。 在2025年表现一直突出，但2026年首月却跑输市场"大盘"的新能源牵引车， 2月份表现如何？能否保持连增势头？跑赢还是跑输？各 家企业表现又是如何？ 请看第一商用车网带来的新能源牵引车市场观察。 2月新能源牵引车新增5128辆，同比小降1% 根据第一商用车网掌握的最新数据，2026年2月份，全国共新增新能源牵引车5128辆（本文数据来源为重型货车营运证入网销量口 径，非交强险口径，不含出口和军车，下同），环比下降67%，同比小降1%。从增幅来看，2月份新能源牵引车市场同比增速遭遇转负 （1月份新能源牵引车销量同比增长167%），交出环比、同比双降的成绩单；月销量环比1月份下滑超万辆，同比2025年2月份则低了 30余辆。2月份，新能源牵引车市场同比下降1%，跑输市场"大盘"（2月份新能源重卡市场整体销量同比小增9%），这是新能源牵引 车市场连续两个月跑输市场"大盘"。 2月份，全国有28个省级行政区有新增新能源牵引车，2月份新增超过200辆的省级行政区有9个；2026年1-2月，全国有30个省级行 政区有新增新能源牵引车，上 ...

2026年1月份，新能源重卡销售超2万辆，以翻倍增长的姿态进入新的一年。虽然有很大一部分是去年尚未上营运证的结转销量，但从 数据上来看， 2026年新能源重卡市场的确是收获了含金量颇高的"开门红"。 按照此前的分析，2月份新能源重卡销量大概率会出现下滑？事实会是如此吗？ 请看第一商用车网带来的新能源重卡市场观察。 根据第一商用车网掌握的最新数据，2026年2月份，全国共新增新能源重卡7034辆（本文数据来源为重型货车营运证入网销量口径， 非交强险销量口径，不含出口和军车，下同），环比下降66%，同比增长9%。从增幅来看，2月份新能源重卡继续呈现环比降、同比增 的趋势，同比增幅较上月大幅缩窄（1月份新能源重卡销量同比大增184%），月销量较上月大幅回落（1月份新能源重卡销量超2万 辆），同比2025年2月则增长了约600辆，约是2025年同期销量的1.1倍。 第一商用车网分析认为，今年1月份新能源重卡营运证销量超过2万辆，有相当大比例是上年完成上牌但尚未上营运证的结转销量， 1.84倍的同比增长并非是市场真实需求。相比而言，2月份销量要"真实"许多，叠加2月份还受春节假期影响，虽然同比增幅仅有9%， 但已非常直 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing focus on "new energy vehicle mileage fees," analyzing the core logic, real motivations, and future implementation prospects within the context of China's fiscal structure and automotive industry development [4][5]. - There is a significant and growing funding gap for road maintenance, estimated at approximately 300 billion yuan, primarily due to the rising penetration of new energy vehicles, which is expected to exceed 57% by 2025, leading to a mismatch between traditional fuel tax revenues and road maintenance needs [3][4]. - The report anticipates that Hainan will likely be the first region to pilot the "mileage fee" policy due to its unique free trade port advantages, with initial trials expected to focus on commercial and operational vehicles [5]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Structure and Funding Gap - The current fiscal system relies on vehicle-related taxes as a core funding source for road construction and maintenance, with road maintenance fees incorporated into fuel consumption taxes since 2009 [4]. - The rapid increase in new energy vehicle adoption is creating a persistent funding gap for road maintenance, necessitating new revenue sources to address this shortfall [4][5]. Policy Implementation - The comprehensive rollout of the "mileage fee" policy is not expected to happen quickly, with initial trials likely to occur in Hainan, focusing on commercial vehicles before potentially expanding to private cars based on trial outcomes and market acceptance [5]. Technological Solutions - The report suggests that the Beidou positioning system's free-flow charging mechanism could serve as a viable alternative to fuel taxes, ensuring fair payment based on road usage while addressing the funding gap for road maintenance [5]. - The Beidou free-flow system has already achieved full coverage and large-scale application in Hainan, providing a solid technical foundation for future pilot projects [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in the implementation of the Beidou free-flow charging project, such as Information Development, as well as new energy vehicle manufacturers like Xiaopeng, NIO, and Li Auto, which are expected to benefit from trends in AI and demand recovery [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [11]. Core Insights - The report discusses the increasing focus on "mileage fees" for new energy vehicles, analyzing the core logic, real motivations, and future implementation prospects within the context of China's fiscal and tax structure [3][4]. - It highlights a significant funding gap for road maintenance, estimated at approximately 300 billion yuan, exacerbated by the rising penetration of new energy vehicles, which is projected to exceed 57% by 2025 [4][5]. - The report anticipates that Hainan will likely be the first region to pilot the mileage fee policy due to its unique free trade port advantages, with initial trials expected to focus on commercial and operational vehicles [5]. - A proposed solution to the funding gap is the implementation of a "free-flow charging mechanism" based on Beidou positioning technology, which aims to replace fuel taxes and ensure fair road usage fees [5]. Summary by Sections Section: Mileage Fee Analysis - The report emphasizes that the current tax system is a core funding source for road construction and maintenance, with fuel taxes integrated into the price of gasoline [4]. - It notes that the rapid increase in new energy vehicle adoption is leading to a growing mismatch between traditional fuel tax revenues and the funding needs for road maintenance [4]. Section: Policy Implementation - The report outlines that while the reform of road maintenance funding is urgent, the comprehensive rollout of mileage fee policies will take time, with Hainan expected to lead pilot programs [5]. - It suggests that the initial implementation will likely target commercial vehicles, with private car adoption contingent on trial outcomes and market acceptance [5]. Section: Technological Solutions - The report identifies the Beidou positioning system as a potential technological solution for implementing a fair and efficient mileage fee system, which could effectively address the funding shortfall for road maintenance [5]. - It mentions that the Beidou free-flow system has already achieved full coverage and large-scale application in Hainan, providing a solid technical foundation for future pilot projects [5]. Section: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in the Beidou free-flow charging project and those that have established operational management platforms, such as Information Development [3]. - It highlights investment opportunities in various segments of the automotive industry, including new energy vehicle manufacturers and key component suppliers, emphasizing the importance of AI and automation trends [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The demand for distributed power sources in North America is increasing due to the mismatch between the expansion of traditional power grids and the rapid construction of data centers, creating opportunities for on-site power generation and backup power equipment [5][16] - The automotive sector is experiencing a shift towards high-end luxury passenger vehicles, with expectations of increased performance as product matrices expand [8] - The automotive parts industry is expected to see an upward trend in profitability due to reduced competition and expansion in downstream markets [8] Summary by Sections 1. Data Center Distributed Power Demand - The power supply gap in North America is widening, leading to increased demand for distributed power sources [16] - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for data centers, with a total expected expenditure of approximately $650 billion in 2026 [16][17] - The total installed capacity of data centers in the U.S. is projected to grow from about 17 GW in 2025 to approximately 50 GW by 2030 [16] 2. Industry News Highlights - Xiaopeng Motors announced that Volkswagen will be the first customer for its second-generation VLA model [34] - Huawei's autonomous driving system recorded over 470 million kilometers during the Spring Festival, equivalent to 190,000 round trips between Beijing and Shanghai [35] - NIO's chip subsidiary completed its first round of financing, raising over 2.2 billion RMB [37] 3. Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance this week saw the Shanghai Composite Index increase by 1.08%, while the automotive sector rose by 0.59%, ranking 23rd among A-share industries [7][43] - The passenger vehicle sector's PE valuation decreased, while commercial vehicles and automotive parts sectors saw an increase in PE valuations [43][46] 4. Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, the recommendation includes Jianghuai Automobile and Seres, with Geely Automobile as a beneficiary [8] - In the automotive parts sector, recommended companies include Desay SV, Zhejiang Xiantong, and Meili Technology, with beneficiaries such as Weichai Power and Wufeng High-Tech [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The demand for distributed power sources in North America is increasing due to the mismatch between the expansion of traditional power grids and the rapid construction of data centers, creating opportunities for on-site power generation and backup power equipment [5][16] - The automotive sector is experiencing a shift towards high-end luxury passenger vehicles, with expectations of increased performance as product matrices expand [8] - The automotive parts industry is expected to see an upward trend in profitability due to reduced competition and expansion in downstream markets [8] Summary by Sections 1. Data Center Distributed Power Demand - The power supply gap in North America is widening, leading to increased demand for distributed power sources [16] - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for data centers, with a total expected expenditure of approximately $650 billion (about 4.58 trillion RMB) in 2026 [16][17] - The total installed capacity of data centers in the U.S. is projected to grow from about 17 GW in 2025 to approximately 50 GW by 2030 [16] 2. Industry News Highlights - XPeng Motors announced that Volkswagen will be the first customer for its second-generation VLA model [6] - Huawei's autonomous driving system recorded over 470 million kilometers during the Spring Festival, equivalent to 190,000 round trips between Beijing and Shanghai [6] - NIO's chip subsidiary completed its first round of financing, raising over 2.2 billion RMB [6] 3. Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance this week saw the CSI 300 index increase by 1.08%, while the automotive sector rose by 0.59%, ranking 23rd among A-share industries [7][43] - The passenger vehicle index decreased by 1.41%, with GAC Group and NIO leading the gains [7][46] - The commercial vehicle index increased by 1.41%, with Hailun Zhe and Weichai Power leading the gains [7][50] 4. Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, the demand for domestic high-end luxury vehicles is exceeding expectations, with recommended stocks including JAC Motors and Seres, while benefiting stocks include Geely [8] - In the parts sector, companies like Desay SV and Zhejiang Xiantong are recommended due to expected profitability improvements [8]