行业点评报告 · 汽车行业 扩内需与高质量发展共振,智能化引领汽车行业"十五五"新征程 十五五规划纲要解读 2026年03月13日 核心观点 "十五五"是加快发展新质生产力的关键期,智能化水平成为汽车产业的 ● 核心竞争力,无人物流车、Robotaxi 等产业有望获得飞速发展。在新一 轮科技革命和产业变革深入演进的背景下,"十五五"时期发展新质生产力、 寻求新的增长点成为汽车行业发展的迫切需求。《规划纲要》提出,要加快新 一代信息技术、新能源、新材料、智能网联新能源汽车、机器人、生物医药、 高端装备、航空航天等战略性新兴产业发展,因地制宜建设各具特色、优势互 补的战略性新兴产业集群,着力打造一批成长潜力大、技术含量高、渗透领域 广的新兴支柱产业。"十五五"时期,我国汽车产业转型升级进入智能化为引 汽车行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 石金漫 网: shijinman_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030002 张禄获 区: zhangludi_sh@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码:S0130524060002 相关研究 1.【银河汽车】行业点评_汽车 ...

2026年1月份，我国商用车市场同比增长23%，收获一波跨年"8连增"（2025年6月份—2026年1月份）。 2月份，商用车市场这一轮的连增最终也定格在"8连增"，请看第一商用车网的分析报道。 连增势头中断：2月销售26.95万辆，同比下降14% 第一商用车网最新获悉，根据中汽协数据（企业开票数口径，非终端实销口径，下同），2026年2月份，我国商用车市场销售26.95万 辆，环比1月份下降25%，同比下降14%，同比增速遭遇转负（2026年1月份同比增长23%），商用车市场自2025年6月份开启的连增 势头就此中断。 上图可见，近五年2月份的商用车市场走出一个降-增-降-增-降的趋势，最近五年2月份商用车市场销量大致呈现两个级别：25万辆左 右水准（2022年、2024年和2026年2月份），以及30万辆出头水准（2023年和2025年2月份）。单从数字上看，2026年2月份商用 车市场26.95万辆的销量在近五年里排在第3高，比2025年2月份少销售约4.4万辆，比五年最低的2023年2月份高出接近2万辆，与五 年最高的2023年2月份相比则低了约5.4万辆。 福田超4万辆蝉联月榜第一，重汽/五菱拼前二 ...

据中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟消息，2月，我国动力和储能电池销量为113.2GWh，环比下降23.9%，同比增长25.7%。其 中，动力电池销量为74.5GWh，占总销量65.9%，环比下降27.4%，同比增长11.4%；储能电池销量为38.6GWh，占总销量 34.1%，环比下降16.2%，同比增长67.3%。 国际新闻 本田汽车预计出现上市以来首次年度亏损 国内新闻 外交部：中方反对美方以所谓"产能过剩"为借口进行政治操弄 3月12日，就媒体报道美方日前表示将对包括中国在内的16个贸易伙伴发起相关贸易调查，外交部发言人郭嘉昆在例行记者会上 答问时说，中方在处理中美经贸问题上的立场是一贯的、明确的，反对各种形式的单边关税措施。关税战、贸易战不符合任何一 方的利益。双方应该在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上协商解决有关问题。所谓"产能过剩"是一个伪命题，中方反对以此为借口进行 政治操弄。 中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟：2月我国动力和储能电池销量为113.2GWh 同比增长25.7% 3月12日，本田汽车发布2025财年的业绩预告，预计2025财年（2025年4月至2026年3月），其净亏损将在4200亿日元至6900 ...

证券代码:600418 证券简称:江淮汽车 编号:2026-009 安徽江淮汽车集团股份有限公司 2026 年 2 月产、销快报 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公司公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 安徽江淮汽车集团股份有限公司董事会 2026 年 3 月 12 日 单位：辆 二月份产销量明细 月度同比 年度同比 本月 去年 同期 增减 % 本年 累计 去年 累计 增减 % 产 量 乘 用 车 运动型多用途乘用车（SUV） 4990 5220 -4.41 10640 10007 6.33 多功能乘用车（MPV） 1223 1248 -2.00 2899 2761 5.00 基本型乘用车（轿车） 716 1033 -30.69 5295 5356 -1.14 商 用 车 货车 10420 11296 -7.75 32276 29182 10.60 皮卡 4781 5029 -4.93 12058 9376 28.60 客车非完整车辆 271 122 122.13 635 348 82.47 多功能商用车 795 729 9.05 2470 212 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [42]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in passenger vehicle demand due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a positive outlook for the passenger vehicle sector in Q1 2026. It emphasizes the importance of selecting resilient domestic companies and those with strong export capabilities [32][33]. - For heavy trucks, the report anticipates a sales volume of 800,000 to 850,000 units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3%. It recommends leading companies in the heavy truck sector [35]. - The bus sector is expected to see a growth in sales to 40,000 units in 2026, driven by the continuation of subsidy policies and the need for fleet renewal [36]. - The motorcycle market is projected to grow by 14% in total sales, with a significant increase in large-displacement motorcycles, particularly in export markets [33]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The report expects a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026 due to subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicle manufacturers such as Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall, and others [32][33]. - The report suggests prioritizing companies with proven execution capabilities in overseas markets, recommending BYD, Great Wall, and Chery for export [32]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the wholesale volume reached 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. The report forecasts a sales volume of 800,000 to 850,000 units for 2026, a 3% increase year-on-year [35]. - Recommended companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and others [35]. Buses - The report indicates that the bus subsidy policy has exceeded expectations, with a projected sales increase to 40,000 units in 2026, a 40% year-on-year growth [36]. - Key recommendations include Yutong Bus and King Long [36]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [33]. - Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [37]. Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming launch of seven significant new models in March 2026, including the Chery iCAR V27, Zhijie V9, and Zeekr 8X, which are expected to have a substantial impact on the market and related stock prices [6][8]. - The focus for March is on the Chery Zhijie V9 and Zeekr 8X, both of which are anticipated to achieve monthly sales of 5,000 to 8,000 units [10][19]. - Investment opportunities are identified in the automotive sector, particularly in companies like Geely, JAC Motors, and Leap Motor, which are expected to exceed market expectations in terms of sales and profitability [6][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The automotive industry comprises 225 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 30,810.37 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 23,623.17 billion yuan [3]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the automotive sector has seen declines of -3.5% over the past month, -4.3% over six months, and -9.1% over the past year, while relative performance shows a slight outperformance of 1.3% over six months and 3.2% over twelve months [4]. Upcoming New Models - The report outlines seven key new models expected to launch in March 2026, including: 1. Chery iCAR V27: C-class hard-core extended-range SUV 2. Zhijie V9: C-class extended-range MPV 3. Zeekr 8X: C-class high-performance plug-in hybrid SUV 4. Other models from various manufacturers [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the new product launches in March as potential catalysts for investment in the automotive sector, particularly recommending Geely (Zeekr 8X) and Chery (Zhijie V9) [6][8]. - Specific recommendations include: 1. Geely: Positioned as a top choice for rebound due to low valuation 2. JAC Motors: Expected to benefit from a favorable competitive landscape 3. Leap Motor: Potential investment opportunity if sales expectations improve [6][8].

据第一商用车网统计，在2026年2月（2026年2月2日-2026年3月1日）的4周内，国内9家主流轻卡企业（或品牌）的"轻卡第一影响 力指数"总得分为1305分，环比2026年1月（2025年12月29日-2026年2月1日）的5周得分（1764）下降了26%，同比2025年2月 （2025年2月3日-2025年3月2日）的4周得分（1397分）下降了6.6%。 2月因春节假期的影响，"轻卡第一影响力指数"总得分出现下滑，但2月份依然不乏传播热点，大单交付、新车上市、新能源车型推广等 活动同样进行中，还有各品牌的多场新春送福利活动举行。 江淮交车忙 东风活动收官 重汽送福利 2月，马年开局之际，江淮1卡乘势而上、捷报频传，近百辆各系明星车型在全国多省市批量交付，覆盖冷链、学校团餐、快递、轻工业 产品运输等多元物流场景。15辆恺达EX6顺利交付福州某公司，11辆帅铃交付石家庄客户，5辆帅铃S9冷藏车也在石家庄顺利交付，绍 兴某物流公司批量采购10辆骏铃V7用于轻纺原材料及成品配送业务。同时，江淮1卡向绍兴另一物流公司交付8辆帅铃车型，20辆骏铃 V7冷藏车则正式交付上海某物流租赁公司，云南也有10辆江淮1卡冷 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - Passenger car demand is expected to marginally improve, with a focus on quality complete vehicles and auto parts companies [2][11] - The government emphasizes expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, with specific measures to support the automotive sector, including a special bond of 250 billion yuan for consumer upgrades and a 100 billion yuan fund to stimulate demand [8][11] - The North American power shortage continues to validate the need for gas-fired power generation, with a growing demand for gas turbine and generator companies [12] - Recent financing trends indicate market confidence in the robotics industry, with the upcoming release of Tesla's Optimus V3 expected to catalyze growth in the robotics supply chain [13] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - Strong alpha auto parts companies are expected to withstand industry risks and achieve revenue and profit growth. Key sectors to watch include gas power generation, humanoid robotics, liquid cooling, and advanced driving technology [3][13] - Recommended stocks in the gas power generation sector include Silver Wheel Co., Ltd. and Weichai Power; in the liquid cooling sector, recommended stocks include Invec, Silver Wheel Co., Ltd., Top Group, and others; in the robotics sector, recommended stocks include New Spring Co., Ltd., Top Group, and others; in the advanced driving sector, recommended stocks include Jingwei Hirain Technologies and others; for complete vehicles, recommended stocks include BYD, SAIC Motor, and others [3][13] Sales Tracking - In February, brands such as Hongmeng Zhixing, Leap Motor, and NIO showed significant year-on-year sales growth, with Hongmeng Zhixing delivering 28,200 vehicles, a 31.1% increase year-on-year [14][40] - The overall passenger car market was weak in January-February due to policy transitions, but demand is expected to gradually release starting in March as subsidy details are announced [11][12] Market Trends - The automotive sector overall is under pressure, with the automotive index down 2.6%, underperforming the broader market [24] - Key companies showed mixed performance, with BYD up 4.81% while others like Silver Wheel Co., Ltd. saw an increase of 11.41% [25]

Core Viewpoint - In February 2026, the sales of new energy tractors in China showed a slight decline of 1% year-on-year, breaking the continuous growth trend observed in previous months. The overall market for new energy heavy trucks, however, experienced a small increase of 9% year-on-year, indicating that the new energy tractor segment is lagging behind the broader market [1][18]. Sales Performance - In February 2026, a total of 5,128 new energy tractors were sold, representing a month-on-month decrease of 67% and a year-on-year decline of 1%. This marks a significant drop from January's sales, which had seen a year-on-year increase of 167% [2][3]. - The cumulative sales for January and February 2026 reached over 20,600 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 88%. Despite the slowdown in February, the overall market remains in a growth phase [13]. Company Rankings - XCMG led the sales in February with nearly 1,000 units sold (944 units), followed by Heavy Truck (748 units), SANY (632 units), and Jiefang (625 units). The top six companies all sold over 300 units [5][6]. - Notably, Chuangwei experienced a remarkable increase of 9,250% year-on-year, entering the top ten rankings for the first time, while other companies like Dongfeng and Yuchai also showed significant growth [8][10]. Market Share - In February 2026, the market shares of the top four companies were as follows: XCMG (18.4%), Heavy Truck (14.6%), SANY (12.3%), and Jiefang (12.2%). The next tier included Shaanxi Automobile (8.3%) and Foton (6.2%) [10][16]. - The market share differences among the leading companies are minimal, with Heavy Truck and SANY having a difference of less than 0.1% in market share [16]. Monthly Changes - The rankings of the top ten companies changed in February, with Chuangwei moving up four positions to rank ninth. Heavy Truck rose to second place, while Shaanxi Automobile and Foton also improved their standings [11][12]. Future Outlook - The new energy tractor market is expected to face challenges in March, as it enters the traditional sales peak season for heavy trucks. The ability of the new energy tractor segment to regain growth will be closely monitored [18].

Core Viewpoint - The sales of new energy heavy trucks in January 2026 exceeded 20,000 units, marking a significant growth, although a large portion of this was carried over from the previous year. February sales showed a decline compared to January but still reflected resilience in the market with a year-on-year increase [1][3]. Sales Performance - In February 2026, a total of 7,034 new energy heavy trucks were sold nationwide, representing a month-on-month decrease of 66% but a year-on-year increase of 9%. The year-on-year growth rate significantly narrowed compared to January's 184% increase [2][5]. - The cumulative sales for January and February 2026 reached 27,700 units, with a year-on-year growth of 102%. This growth rate has decreased from January's 184% but still indicates a doubling in sales [14][21]. Market Dynamics - The sales in February were influenced by the Spring Festival holiday, which affected the overall market activity. Despite the lower month-on-month sales, the year-on-year increase demonstrates the market's resilience [3][21]. - By February, all 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China had recorded sales of new energy heavy trucks, with 10 regions exceeding 1,000 units sold [3]. Company Performance - In February 2026, the top three companies in terms of sales were XCMG (1,220 units), Sinotruk (1,134 units), and SANY (1,034 units). Notably, XCMG maintained a market share of 17.3% [7][12]. - Several companies experienced significant year-on-year growth, with Chuangwei and United Heavy Trucks seeing increases of 2,571% and 186%, respectively [10][12]. Market Share - In February 2026, the market shares of the leading companies were as follows: XCMG (17.3%), Sinotruk (16.1%), and SANY (14.7%). The fourth place was held by Jiefang with a market share of 10.6% [12][19]. - The market share dynamics showed changes from January, with Chuangwei entering the top ten rankings, while some companies dropped out of the list [12][19]. Future Outlook - The upcoming months, particularly the "golden March and silver April" period, are critical for maintaining the growth momentum in the new energy heavy truck market. The industry is closely monitoring whether the positive sales trend can continue [21].