Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The company has achieved significant growth in net profit attributable to the parent company, with a year-on-year increase of 954.45% in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company is actively expanding its foreign trade routes, benefiting from the rising cycle of the international dry bulk shipping market [2] - The company's fleet size is expected to grow further with the delivery of new ships, enhancing its competitive position in the industry [2] Company Overview - The company is a leading domestic dry bulk shipping operator, ranking fourth in China for five consecutive years from 2019 to 2023 [2] - It has signed agreements for 14 new ships and holds options for an additional 6 ships, with deliveries expected by 2026 [2] - The company has a diversified business layout, focusing on dry bulk shipping while also engaging in ship management and commodity trade [8] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 680 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%, and a gross profit of 138 million yuan, with a gross margin of 20.3% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company reached 82 million yuan, a significant increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The company's revenue and gross profit are primarily derived from foreign trade shipping and vessel rentals [9] Market and Industry Analysis - The company has shifted its strategy to focus more on foreign trade routes, taking advantage of the rising international shipping rates [3] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1847.5 points in the first three quarters of 2024, a 57.6% increase year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in the international dry bulk shipping market [2] - The company's performance in the domestic market has been weak, but its foreign trade operations have driven overall growth [10] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 110 million yuan, 180 million yuan, and 250 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.2 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.44 yuan for the same periods [3] - The company's PE ratio for 2025 is 24x, higher than the industry average of 11x, reflecting its potential for higher returns as it benefits from the economic recovery and its strategic shift to foreign trade routes [19] Valuation and Comparison - The company's valuation is compared to peers such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and Haitong Development, with a 2025 PE ratio of 24x, higher than the industry average [19] - The company's higher valuation is justified by its strategic focus on foreign trade routes and expected growth in the international shipping market [19]
国航远洋：积极布局外贸航线，享受高运价弹性