贵州茅台：业绩点评：调结构稳市场，业绩韧性延续

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" based on strong performance and resilience in earnings [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 123.12 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.91%, with a net profit of 60.08 billion yuan, up 15.04% [2][3]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 39.67 billion yuan, a 15.56% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 19.13 billion yuan, growing by 13.23% [2][3]. - The company is expected to meet its annual revenue growth target of 15%, with projected revenues of 174.5 billion yuan, 196.83 billion yuan, and 220.24 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 15.9%, 12.8%, and 11.9% [4][7]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q3 2024, the revenue from Moutai liquor reached 32.56 billion yuan, up 16.32%, while series liquor revenue was 6.25 billion yuan, growing by 13.15% [3]. - Direct sales channel revenue in Q3 2024 was 18.26 billion yuan, a 23.49% increase, while wholesale channel revenue was 20.54 billion yuan, up 9.71% [3]. - Domestic revenue was 37.53 billion yuan, increasing by 15.22%, and international revenue was 1.28 billion yuan, growing by 35.77% [3]. Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 91.05%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 48.23%, down 0.99 percentage points [3]. - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 68.70 yuan, 77.87 yuan, and 87.28 yuan respectively [4][7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong earnings resilience, supported by macroeconomic policies that are anticipated to boost demand [4].