LI AUTO(02015) 国金证券·2024-11-03 09:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant improvements in profitability, with a focus on the recovery of gross margins and optimization of expense ratios. The company is expected to enter a new vehicle cycle in 2024-2025, maintaining a positive outlook [4][3]. - The company has shown strong sales performance, with Q3 deliveries reaching 153,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.8% [2]. - The report projects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 12.17 billion, 19.36 billion, and 26.83 billion RMB respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18.7, 11.8, and 8.5 [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 123.85 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 173.48% compared to 2022. The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 11.70 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 681.65% [1]. - Q3 revenue reached 42.87 billion RMB, with automotive business revenue at 41.32 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22% [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 21.5%, with a slight decline from previous quarters, while the automotive business gross margin was 20.9% [2]. Cost Management - R&D and SGA expenses for Q3 were 2.59 billion and 3.36 billion RMB respectively, with a decrease in expense ratios compared to previous periods [2]. - The report indicates a significant reduction in unit costs, with the cost per vehicle dropping to 214,000 RMB [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q4 deliveries between 160,000 and 170,000 units, with revenue projections of 43.2 to 45.9 billion RMB, indicating a year-on-year growth of 3.5% to 10% [3]. - The company is preparing for a new cycle of pure electric vehicles in 2025, with strong order stability and an extensive charging infrastructure already in place [3].