美的集团：2024年三季报点评：内外销并进，经营质量再提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Midea Group with a target price of 84 CNY, compared to the current price of 72.25 CNY [1]. Core Insights - Midea Group achieved a total revenue of 320.35 billion CNY in Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.7 billion CNY, up 14.4% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 102.23 billion CNY, with a net profit of 10.9 billion CNY, reflecting increases of 8.1% and 14.9% respectively [1]. - The company demonstrated robust revenue growth, outperforming industry competitors, highlighting its operational resilience through diversification and globalization. Revenue contributions from various segments include: Smart Home at 215.4 billion CNY (+10%), New Energy and Industrial Technology at 25.4 billion CNY (+19%), Smart Building Technology at 22.4 billion CNY (+6%), and Robotics and Automation at 20.8 billion CNY (-9%) [1]. - Midea's B2B business is expanding successfully, accounting for approximately 21% of total revenue, indicating a clearer second growth curve. The overseas OBM revenue grew over 25% year-on-year from January to September 2024, supported by effective global channel expansion and supply chain development [1]. - The company's profit growth outpaced revenue growth, with a Q3 profit increase of 14.9% exceeding market expectations. The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 was 26.8%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from product mix upgrades and cost reductions [1]. - Midea completed its H-share listing on September 17, 2024, marking a new phase in its globalization strategy. The domestic market is expected to benefit from government subsidies for appliance replacements, with significant retail growth observed in September [1]. - The profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted to 38.8 billion CNY, 42.6 billion CNY, and 46.5 billion CNY respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times [1]. Financial Summary - For 2023, Midea Group's total revenue is projected at 373.71 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.1%. The net profit is expected to be 33.72 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 14.1% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 5.06 CNY, with a P/E ratio of 14 times [2].