凯赛生物：Q3业绩符合预期，癸二酸持续放量

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with significant growth driven by the increase in the sales of sebacic acid, achieving a revenue of 2.215 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.49% [1] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 345 million yuan, up 9.97% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 335 million yuan, which increased by 25.51% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on R&D, with R&D expenses increasing by 70.79% year-on-year, indicating a commitment to innovation and product development [1] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth no less than 10 million yuan, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects [1] - The establishment of a new subsidiary in the textile industry aims to enhance production capacity for bio-based polyamide spinning materials [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 771 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.06%, and a net profit of 98 million yuan, up 35.69% year-on-year [1] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 473 million, 655 million, and 857 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.1%, 38.4%, and 30.8% [2] - The company’s revenue is expected to reach 2.114 billion yuan in 2023, with a significant recovery projected in subsequent years [4][6] - The gross profit margin is projected to be 24.7% in 2024, with a gradual increase to 28.3% by 2026 [7] Cash Flow and Investment - The operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be -300 million yuan, with a recovery to 442 million yuan by 2026 [5] - Capital expenditures are expected to increase significantly, indicating ongoing investment in capacity expansion [5] Balance Sheet Overview - Total assets are projected to grow from 18.833 billion yuan in 2023 to 27.878 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting the company's growth strategy [6] - The company’s total liabilities are expected to increase, indicating a potential rise in leverage as it invests in growth [6]