海信家电：外销保持快速增长

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of 34.80 CNY over the next six months, representing a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times for 2024 [5][11]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 70.58 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.79 billion CNY, up 15.1% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights that while domestic sales growth has slowed, export sales continue to grow rapidly, with a projected year-on-year increase of over 30% for white goods [2][3]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 20.8%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased competition and rising raw material costs [3]. - The report anticipates that the company's profitability will improve due to the expected enhancement in domestic sales prices driven by trade-in programs and ongoing product upgrades [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 21.94 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 780 million CNY, down 16.3% year-on-year [1][3]. - The operating cash flow for Q3 decreased by 1.78 billion CNY year-on-year, attributed to a significant increase in cash payments for goods and services [3]. Sales Performance - Domestic sales growth has been impacted by the real estate sector, with significant declines in central air conditioning and home appliance sales. However, the company is diversifying its central air conditioning business to reduce reliance on real estate [2]. - Export sales for home air conditioners and refrigerators showed strong growth, with year-on-year increases of 44% and 22%, respectively, in Q3 2024 [2]. Profitability Metrics - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 2.32 CNY and 2.69 CNY for 2024 and 2025, respectively [3]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 3.5%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability [3]. Market Outlook - The central air conditioning segment is identified as a growth area within the major appliance sector, with the company expected to benefit from increased downstream demand [3].