洋河股份2024Q3点评：静待景气恢复

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 performance: Revenue of 4.641 billion yuan (down 44.82% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders of 631 million yuan (down 73.03% YoY), and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 456 million yuan (down 81.41% YoY) [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue totaled 27.516 billion yuan (down 9.14% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.579 billion yuan (down 15.92% YoY), and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 8.397 billion yuan (down 17.39% YoY) [1] - Revenue pressure due to weakened demand and intensified competition in the domestic market, with expectations that the Dream Blue series will perform better than the overall company performance [1] - Gross margin decreased by 8.63 percentage points to 66.24% in Q3 2024, primarily due to increased discounting efforts [1] - Net profit margin decreased by 14.39 percentage points to 13.52% in Q3 2024 [1] - The company is expected to continue facing challenges in both domestic and external markets, with inventory destocking being a current operational focus [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 29.658 billion yuan, 28.808 billion yuan, and 30.244 billion yuan respectively, with YoY changes of -10.5%, -2.9%, and +5.0% [2] - Net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 8.180 billion yuan, 7.910 billion yuan, and 8.500 billion yuan respectively, with YoY changes of -18.3%, -3.3%, and +7.5% [2] - Current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 15, 15, and 14 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][2]