百润股份：公司信息更新报告：预调酒销售持续承压，期待业绩逐步改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the sales of pre-mixed cocktails are under pressure, but there is an expectation for gradual improvement in performance [1] - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026 due to the pressure on pre-mixed cocktail sales, with projected net profits of 750 million, 860 million, and 1 billion yuan for the respective years, reflecting year-on-year changes of -7.3%, +15.0%, and +15.5% [3][4] - The company plans to launch new whiskey products in the fourth quarter, which is expected to create a new growth curve [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 2.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 570 million yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, the operating revenue was 760 million yuan, a decline of 6.0% year-on-year, and the net profit was 170 million yuan, down 24.0% year-on-year [3] - The gross margin improved to 70.18% in Q3 2024, an increase of 1.34 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower costs and changes in product mix [3] Sales and Product Performance - The revenue from pre-mixed cocktails for the first three quarters was 2.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at 670 million yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year [3] - The company is focusing on promotional activities and inventory reduction in response to weak consumer demand [3] - The sales of the "Refreshing" product line are expected to maintain high growth due to its cost-effectiveness in lower-tier markets [3] Financial Metrics and Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 0.72 yuan, 0.82 yuan, and 0.95 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 29.5, 25.7, and 22.2 [3][4] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 24.36 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of about 16.63 billion yuan [1]