Drinda(002865) 民生证券·2024-11-03 11:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its future performance [1][3] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to oversupply and intensified competition in the photovoltaic (PV) cell market, leading to price declines [1] - Despite the challenges, the company's overseas sales ratio has significantly increased, with a notable rise in market share in key regions such as India, Turkey, and Europe [1] - The company is accelerating its overseas capacity layout, particularly with a 5GW high-efficiency N-type cell production base in Oman, which is expected to enhance profitability by targeting high-value markets like the US, Europe, and the Middle East [1] - The company continues to optimize its TOPCon technology and is exploring future technologies like BC and perovskite, with lab efficiencies reaching industry-leading levels [1] Financial Performance - For 24Q1-Q3, the company reported revenue of RMB 8,202 million, a year-on-year decrease of 42.96%, and a net loss attributable to the parent company of RMB -417 million, a year-on-year decrease of 125.45% [1] - In 24Q3, the company's revenue was RMB 1,828 million, a year-on-year decrease of 63.14%, with a net loss attributable to the parent company of RMB -251 million, a year-on-year decrease of 136.69% [1] - The company's PV cell shipments reached 26.45GW in 24Q1-Q3, a year-on-year increase of 35.29%, with N-type cells accounting for 89.60% of total shipments [1] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 10,764 million, RMB 15,425 million, and RMB 17,689 million in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1][2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB -481 million in 2024, turning positive to RMB 988 million in 2025 and RMB 1,513 million in 2026 [1][2] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to be 19x in 2025 and 12x in 2026 [1][2] Technological Advancements - The company's TOPCon technology has achieved a bifacial rate of 90% and a conversion efficiency of 26.3% for its "MoNo2" product [1] - The company is also developing TBC and perovskite tandem cells, with lab efficiencies reaching 29.03%, positioning it as a leader in the industry [1]