XINJI ENERGY(601918) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-11-03 11:40Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Xinji Energy (601918.SH) [1] Core Views - The commissioning of the second phase of the Lixin Power Plant is expected to sustain high growth in the thermal power business [1] - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected to be 12,717 million yuan, with a slight decrease of 1% year-on-year, followed by a significant increase of 13% in 2024 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow by 13% in 2024, reaching 2,379 million yuan [1] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022A: 12,003 million yuan - 2023A: 12,845 million yuan - 2024E: 12,717 million yuan - 2025E: 14,334 million yuan - 2026E: 20,373 million yuan [1][2] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022A: 2,064 million yuan - 2023A: 2,109 million yuan - 2024E: 2,379 million yuan - 2025E: 2,512 million yuan - 2026E: 2,944 million yuan [1][2] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 0.81 yuan - 2024E: 0.92 yuan - 2025E: 0.97 yuan - 2026E: 1.14 yuan [2] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2024E: 9.3 - 2025E: 8.8 - 2026E: 7.5 [1] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2024E: 15% - 2025E: 15% - 2026E: 16% [1] Business Performance - Coal Production: - In Q3 2024, the coal production decreased by 16.49% year-on-year, with a total of 452 million tons [1] - Power Generation: - The power generation for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 16.18% year-on-year, reaching 40 billion kWh [1] - Average On-grid Electricity Price: - Increased by 20.77% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [1] Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued expansion in the power business due to the commissioning of new projects and an increase in electricity generation capacity [1]