山西汾酒：回款质量较高，期待省外发力

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Shanxi Fenjiu has a high quality of cash collection and anticipates growth in markets outside its home province [1] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.35 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, which aligns with market expectations [1] - The report indicates that the company is expected to maintain steady growth despite a general slowdown in the liquor industry [1][2] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022A: 26,214 million yuan - 2023A: 31,928 million yuan (yoy growth of 22%) - 2024E: 36,907 million yuan (yoy growth of 16%) - 2025E: 41,777 million yuan (yoy growth of 13%) - 2026E: 47,079 million yuan (yoy growth of 13%) [1] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022A: 8,096 million yuan - 2023A: 10,438 million yuan (yoy growth of 29%) - 2024E: 12,184 million yuan (yoy growth of 17%) - 2025E: 14,011 million yuan (yoy growth of 15%) - 2026E: 15,989 million yuan (yoy growth of 14%) [1] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: 6.64 yuan - 2023A: 8.56 yuan - 2024E: 9.99 yuan - 2025E: 11.48 yuan - 2026E: 13.11 yuan [1] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2022A: 37% - 2023A: 37% - 2024E: 35% - 2025E: 32% - 2026E: 29% [1] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2022A: 31.5 - 2023A: 24.4 - 2024E: 20.9 - 2025E: 18.2 - 2026E: 15.9 [1] Market Position and Strategy - The report notes that Shanxi Fenjiu is leveraging its strong brand and unique flavor profile to expand its market presence nationally, particularly in provinces outside its home base [1] - The company is expected to continue its efforts in channel adjustment and brand positioning to achieve balanced growth in both volume and price [1][2]