LN Holdings(SZ:000524) Soochow Securities·2024-11-03 12:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lingnan Holdings is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Lingnan Holdings reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2024, driven by non-operating income from dividends received from an associate company [2][3] - The tourism industry remains in a high prosperity phase, with both outbound and domestic travel showing strong recovery [3] - The company's hotel business is facing pressure, impacting its overall profitability despite the positive trends in travel [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 135 million yuan, up 133.96% [2] - In Q3 alone, revenue reached 1.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.25%, while net profit soared by 240.43% due to a one-time dividend of 76.07 million yuan from an associate [2] - The gross margin for Q3 was 17.7%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a corresponding decline in the net profit margin [2] Industry Outlook - The outbound tourism market is recovering significantly, with inbound foreign visitors reaching 8.186 million in Q3, a 48.8% increase year-on-year [3] - Domestic travel also saw growth, with 1.512 billion trips taken in Q3, up 17.2% year-on-year [3] - The company's travel agency business is expanding, particularly in the Greater Bay Area, with a notable increase in pre-collected customer tour fees [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for Lingnan Holdings has been adjusted, with net profits projected at 170 million yuan for 2024, 150 million yuan for 2025, and 210 million yuan for 2026 [4] - The corresponding P/E ratios are estimated at 40, 44, and 31 times for the years 2024 to 2026 [4]