Chanhen(002895) 长城证券·2024-11-03 12:55Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained Rating) [1] Core Views - The company's 3Q24 performance showed significant year-on-year growth, with revenue increasing by 29.36% YoY to 3.973 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 36.75% YoY to 672 million yuan [1] - The phosphochemical industry chain continues to experience high prosperity, with the company's main product prices rising, supporting its 3Q24 performance growth [2] - The company is actively expanding its mineral resource layout, including acquiring equity in Qianyuan Geological Exploration and investing in a wholly-owned subsidiary to support its liquid fertilizer business [3][4] - The company has adjusted its fundraising usage to focus on phosphorite capacity expansion, with the technical transformation project expected to increase its phosphorite production capacity from 500,000 tons/year to 800,000 tons/year [5] Financial Performance - The company's 2024E revenue is projected to be 5.323 billion yuan, with a YoY growth rate of 23.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 953 million yuan, a 24.3% YoY increase [1] - The company's 2024E ROE is forecasted to be 14.5%, with EPS at 1.76 yuan and P/E ratio at 10.7x [1] - The company's 2024E gross profit margin is expected to be 37.1%, with a net profit margin of 18.4% [9] Industry and Market Analysis - The phosphorite market price remained high in 3Q24, with an average price of 1,017.03 yuan/ton, up 13.85% YoY and 0.75% QoQ [2] - The company's main products, including calcium dihydrogen phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, phosphoric acid, and lithium iron phosphate, saw price increases in 3Q24, supporting its performance growth [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company acquired 58.5% equity in Qianyuan Geological Exploration, which holds the Laozhaizi phosphorite mine with a production capacity of 1.8 million tons/year, expected to be operational by the end of 2027 [3] - The company established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Chengdu Meilin Ecological Technology Co., Ltd., with a capital of 5 million yuan to support its liquid fertilizer business [4] - The company adjusted its fundraising usage to focus on the technical transformation of the Xiaoba phosphorite mine, which is expected to increase production capacity from 500,000 tons/year to 800,000 tons/year [5]