藏格矿业：公司业绩短期承压，看好巨龙铜矿二期建设

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to declining prices of key products such as potassium and lithium, with a significant drop in revenue and net profit reported for the first three quarters of 2024 [2][4]. - The future potential of the Jilong Copper Mine is highlighted, with expectations for increased production and investment returns as the second phase of the project progresses towards trial production in early 2026 [4][7]. - The company is advancing various key projects, which are expected to enhance its resource reserves, particularly in potassium and lithium [5][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to generate revenues of 3.19 billion yuan, a decrease of 38.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.45 billion yuan, down 28.5% [7]. - The company's operating income for the first three quarters of 2024 was reported at 2.32 billion yuan, a decline of 44.53% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan, down 37.08% [2][4]. - The cash flow from operating activities showed a significant decrease of 73.13% year-on-year, while investment activities generated a positive cash flow, increasing by 111.94% [3]. Product Sales and Pricing Summary - The sales volume of potassium chloride decreased by 28.22% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 2,301.21 yuan per ton, down 15.40% [2]. - The sales volume of lithium carbonate increased by 31.56% year-on-year, but the average selling price fell sharply by 63.73% to 89,250.72 yuan per ton [2]. Project Development Summary - The company has made progress in its projects, including securing potassium salt reserves in Laos and advancing lithium projects in Tibet, which are expected to significantly enhance its resource base [5][7].