老白干酒：公司季报点评：省外增长亮眼，利润持续释放

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.088 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 556 million yuan, up 33.0% year-on-year [4][5] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.618 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 252 million yuan, which is a 25.2% increase year-on-year [4][5] - The company continues to optimize its product structure and enhance brand communication, leading to growth in mid-to-high-end liquor sales [5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's liquor revenue in Q3 2024 increased by 5.9% to 1.612 billion yuan, with revenues from products priced above and below 100 yuan increasing by 9.9% and 2.3% respectively [5] - The company’s net profit margin improved by 3.1 percentage points year-on-year to 15.6% in Q3 2024, with a gross margin of 66.8% [6] Cost Management - The company has maintained stable expense ratios, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing minimal changes [6] - The effective tax rate decreased by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to profit improvement [6] Cash Flow and Receivables - The company reported a decrease in cash receipts from sales by 11.9% year-on-year to 1.624 billion yuan, and a net cash flow from operating activities of 419 million yuan, down 36.5% year-on-year [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to have EPS of 0.92, 1.12, and 1.33 yuan per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a target P/E ratio of 25-30 times for 2024, leading to a fair value range of 22.91-27.49 yuan [7]