山西汾酒：公司季报点评：弱需求下势能延续，业绩稳增符合预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 31.358 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.350 billion yuan, up 20.3% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.611 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.4%, and a net profit of 2.940 billion yuan, which is a 10.4% increase year-on-year [4] - The revenue growth in the third quarter was stable, although the growth rate in provinces outside the home province showed signs of slowing down [4] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 74.3%, down 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, but the decline was significantly narrower compared to Q2 2024 [5] - The company’s operating cash flow showed strong performance, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 3.505 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.2% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 31.358 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.3% and a net profit of 11.350 billion yuan, up 20.3% [4] - Q3 2024 revenue was 8.611 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and net profit was 2.940 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.4% year-on-year growth [4] - The company’s gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 74.3%, down 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in Q2 2024 [5] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2024, revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories grew by 6.7% and 25.6% year-on-year, reaching 6.188 billion yuan and 2.405 billion yuan respectively [4] - Revenue from the home province increased by 12.1% year-on-year to 3.506 billion yuan, while revenue from outside the province grew by 10.9% year-on-year to 5.087 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown compared to the first half of the year [4] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company’s operating cash flow was robust, with sales cash receipts of 8.560 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.8% [5] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 3.505 billion yuan, up 67.2% year-on-year, indicating strong operational efficiency [5] Earnings Forecast - The company’s EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 10.23, 11.66, and 13.11 yuan per share respectively [6] - Based on comparable company valuations, a PE ratio of 20-25 times is suggested for 2024, leading to a reasonable value range of 204.51 to 255.64 yuan [6]