Aier(300015) 国泰君安·2024-11-03 13:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - Short-term growth is under pressure due to external consumption environment and the implementation of centralized procurement for cataract artificial lenses. However, with the stabilization of the macro economy and improvement in the consumption environment, the company's performance is expected to recover [2][3]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 16.302 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.452 billion yuan, up 8.50%. The third quarter saw operating revenue of 5.756 billion yuan, down 0.68%, and a net profit of 1.402 billion yuan, down 4.56% [3][4]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 51.02%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points, while the third quarter gross profit margin was 53.91%, down 2.40 percentage points [3]. - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.39, 0.43, and 0.47 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.42, 0.46, and 0.50 yuan [3]. M&A and Market Expansion - The company is steadily advancing its hospital acquisition and integration strategy, having announced the acquisition of partial equity in 35 hospitals, which collectively generated operating revenue of 749 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 35.31% [3]. - The acquisition price for the 35 hospitals is 899 million yuan, with an overall valuation of 1.417 billion yuan, corresponding to a 2023 PS of 1.89, indicating reasonable valuation [3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price has been raised to 17.55 yuan, with a PE ratio of 45X for 2024, reflecting a positive outlook based on comparable company valuations [3][5]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately 132.257 billion yuan, with a current price of 14.18 yuan [6]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 20.766 billion yuan in 2024, 21.687 billion yuan in 2025, and 22.724 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 3.596 billion yuan, 3.969 billion yuan, and 4.354 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The net asset return rate is expected to remain stable around 17.6% to 17.2% over the forecast period [4].