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继峰股份:2024年三季报点评:座椅加速放量,业绩短期受减值与费用影响

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15.3 CNY, compared to the current price of 13.30 CNY [1][2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.9 billion CNY in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.2%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was -585 million CNY, a year-on-year decline of 656 million CNY and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 619 million CNY [1][2]. - The revenue growth was driven by the ramp-up of the Ideal L6 seat production, with 100,000 sets produced by early September 2024, contributing approximately 300 million CNY to revenue [1][2]. - The decline in net profit was primarily due to one-time impairment losses and increased expenses, with a gross margin of 14.1%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year and 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company is expected to improve profitability significantly after the sale of TMD, which has been a major source of losses [1][2]. - The company anticipates substantial profit growth from its complete seat business, projecting revenues of 5.8 billion CNY and net profits of 290 million CNY by 2025 [1][2]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 21.571 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.1%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to be 23.072 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 7.0% [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -452 million CNY in 2024, a significant decline from 204 million CNY in 2023, with a recovery expected in 2025 to 920 million CNY [2][3]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, including earnings per share (EPS) expected to be -0.36 CNY in 2024, with a recovery to 0.73 CNY in 2025 and 0.98 CNY in 2026 [2][3].