中航产融：投资收益贡献显著，Q3利润同比高增

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [5][6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant profit growth in Q3, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 1137% driven by investment income and fair value changes [3][5]. - The company is positioned as a financial holding platform within the aviation and military industry, leveraging its dual advantages in finance and industry to drive long-term performance growth [5][6]. - Despite a slight decline in revenue, the company is expected to benefit from its strong position in the military industry and ongoing structural adjustments in its financial services [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 11.52 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 600 million yuan, down 13% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved total revenue of 3.79 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, but net profit surged to 360 million yuan, up 1137% year-on-year [2][3]. - Investment income and fair value changes contributed to a 12% year-on-year increase in investment income to 2 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, with Q3 showing a remarkable 1852% increase to 910 million yuan [3][4]. Revenue Breakdown - The leasing segment saw a revenue decline of 9% to 7.52 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, with Q3 revenue down 11% to 2.63 billion yuan [4]. - Interest income increased by 11% to 2.69 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, while fee and commission income fell by 33% to 1.31 billion yuan, reflecting a structural transformation in financial services [4]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.10 yuan, 0.18 yuan, and 0.21 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a target price of 5.16 yuan based on a 50x P/E ratio for 2024 [5][6].