每经AI快讯，1月9日14时27分，上交所固收平台显示，24产融04（240563）最新成交价为73.849元，较 前一交易日估值85.0144元偏离-13.13%。 24产融04（240563）最新债项评级AA+，票息2.99%，剩余期 限3.06年。发债主体中航工业产融控股股份有限公司，最新主体评级AA+，所属行业非银金融。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, credit bond coupon value returned, and the expansion of ETFs brought a structural market. Credit risk events occurred sporadically, and the policy focus was on debt resolution and risk prevention. The net financing scale of credit bonds increased by nearly one trillion, and yields rose across the board [4][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Annual Summary: Credit Bond Coupon Value Returned, and ETF Expansion Brought a Structural Market - Throughout 2025, the credit bond market was affected by various factors such as capital prices, policies, and market sentiment. The credit spread showed a trend of widening, narrowing, and then fluctuating. Overall, the 1y AA+ medium - and short - term note yield was reported at 1.78%, with the credit spread narrowing by 34BP to 23BP; the 3y AA+ medium - and short - term note yield rose by 6BP to 1.97%, with the credit spread narrowing by 21BP to 28BP; the 5y AA+ medium - and short - term note yield rose by 14BP to 2.18%, with the credit spread narrowing by 21BP to 37BP; the 10y AA+ medium - and short - term note yield rose by 30BP to 2.65%, with the credit spread widening by 2BP to 63BP [4][8][9]. II. Annual Major Events: Credit Risk Events Occurred Sporadically, and the Policy Focus was on Debt Resolution and Risk Prevention (1) Urban Investment: Debt Resolution and Arrears Clearance Accelerated, and Credit Risk Sentiment Decreased - **Hot Events**: In 2025, debt resolution continued, and two trillion in replacement bonds were issued, with Jiangsu issuing 251.1 billion yuan. The clearance of arrears accelerated, using both fiscal and financial means. The number of non - standard credit risk events in urban investment decreased significantly, and Inner Mongolia exited the list of key provinces, while Jilin met the exit criteria [21][22][28]. - **Regulatory Policies**: The central government supported the improvement and implementation of a package of debt - resolution plans. It required the implementation of debt replacement policies, regarded non - increase of implicit debt as an "iron - clad discipline", accelerated the stripping of the government financing function of local financing platforms, and promoted market - oriented transformation, as well as the clearance of local government arrears to enterprises [2][33]. (2) Real Estate: Vanke's Bond Extension at the End of the Year Slightly Exceeded Market Expectations, and Policies Continuously Promoted the Market to Stabilize and Recover - **Hot Events**: In 2025, Shenzhen Metro Group provided over 20 billion yuan in loans to Vanke to help it pay the principal and interest of its bonds in the public market. However, due to limited remaining credit, Vanke faced liquidity pressure and announced bond extensions at the end of the year. Only the motion to extend the grace period was passed in the bondholder meetings [39][40]. - **Regulatory Policies**: In 2025, real estate policies focused on demand, supply, and real - estate enterprise financing, aiming to promote market stability and build a new development model. On the demand side, it was necessary to release the potential of rigid and improved housing demand; on the supply side, high - quality urban renewal and the construction of "good houses" were emphasized; on the enterprise side, the reasonable financing needs of real - estate enterprises were supported, and the risk of debt default was prevented [44][46][47]. (3) Finance: AVIC Industry Finance, Tianan Property Insurance, and Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank Attracted Attention, and Active Measures were Taken to Prevent Financial Risks - **Hot Events**: The Ministry of Finance issued 500 billion yuan in special treasury bonds to support large banks in replenishing core tier - one capital. AVIC Industry Finance announced voluntary delisting, and the off - market bond payment plan was not approved. Tianan Property Insurance and Tianan Life Insurance defaulted on their bonds, and Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank's secondary capital bonds were significantly discounted [3][50][58]. - **Regulatory Policies**: In 2025, the central government adhered to preventing and resolving key financial risks and strictly adhered to the bottom - line of preventing systemic financial risks. It also issued high - quality development management measures for industries such as trust companies, asset management companies, commercial banks, and insurance companies to standardize their development [3][59][60]. (4) Others: The Science and Technology Bond and Credit Bond ETF Markets Developed Rapidly, and the Bond "South - Bound Connect" was Planned to be Extended to Non - Bank Institutions - **Bond Market "Science and Technology Board"**: Policies required the construction of a "science and technology board" in the bond market to support the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds. In 2025, the net financing of science and technology innovation bonds increased by nearly one trillion yuan year - on - year [65]. - **Credit Bond ETF**: In 2025, 8 benchmark - making credit bond ETFs and 24 science and technology innovation bond ETFs were listed, and the market scale expanded rapidly, reaching over 45 billion yuan by the end of the year [70]. - **Bond "South - Bound Connect"**: The scope of domestic investors in the Bond "South - Bound Connect" was planned to be expanded to non - bank institutions, and Hong Kong market bonds attracted market attention [72]. III. Review of the Primary and Secondary Markets of Credit Bonds: The Net Financing Scale Increased by Nearly One Trillion, and Yields Rose Across the Board (1) Primary Market: Industrial Bonds and Financial Bonds were the Main Supply Sources, and Urban Investment Bonds Continued to Shrink - In 2025, the net financing of credit bonds increased by 953.8 billion yuan year - on - year. Industrial bonds, supported by new science and technology bond policies, were the main supply source. The issuance of financial bonds accelerated in the third quarter due to the strong performance of the equity market, while the net supply of urban investment bonds continued to shrink [73]. (2) Secondary Market: Yields Generally Rose, Credit Spreads Narrowed Significantly at the Short - to - Medium End and Slightly Widened at the Long End - In 2025, the yields of credit bonds generally rose, especially at the medium - to - long end. The credit spreads showed a differentiated trend, narrowing significantly at the short - to - medium end and slightly widening at the long end. Non - financial bonds performed better than financial bonds [83].

Core Viewpoint - A total of 9 companies have voluntarily delisted this year, with 5 due to absorption mergers and 4 through privatization methods such as tender offers, indicating a trend towards more companies opting for voluntary delisting as regulatory channels for delisting diversify [1][2] Group 1: Company Delisting Trends - 9 companies have voluntarily delisted this year, with 5 involved in absorption mergers and 4 through privatization [1] - Companies that have announced or completed voluntary delisting include Yulong Co., Ltd., AVIC Capital, Tianmao Co., Ltd., Hangzhou Steam Turbine B, Dongxing Securities, and others [1] - The delisting of companies like Hangzhou Steam Turbine B and Dongxing Securities is attributed to absorption mergers, while Yulong Co., Ltd. and others have chosen voluntary delisting due to poor performance or financial difficulties [1] Group 2: Reasons for Delisting - Yulong Co., Ltd. faced severe operational stagnation and cash flow issues, leading to a lack of self-sustaining capability [2] - AVIC Capital, the first financial holding company listed in A-shares, cited significant operational uncertainties that could have major impacts [2] - Industry insiders suggest that voluntary delisting is a strategic choice for controlling shareholders to mitigate greater risks, allowing for better planning and reduced compliance costs [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently in an N-shaped consolidation phase with relatively low trading volume, indicating a wait-and-see approach ahead of policy announcements for the coming year[3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has released a draft regulation to enhance market value management, cash dividends, and share buybacks, aiming to improve investment value and investor returns[3] Currency Trends - Since November, the RMB has appreciated against the USD, driven by a stable Sino-US economic environment and year-end settlement demand, with the exchange rate reaching approximately 7.0583[3][10] - The RMB's rapid appreciation may slow down in the short term, but the long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by internal economic adjustments and external monetary policy shifts[10][11] Investment Opportunities - The recent adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies is expected to introduce over 100 billion RMB in potential insurance capital into the market, supporting technology innovation[3] - The report suggests focusing on sectors with marginal catalysts, such as commercial aerospace and robotics, while maintaining a dividend-based investment strategy[4] Foreign Investment Insights - In Q3 2025, the top five sectors favored by northbound capital were power equipment, electronics, pharmaceuticals, banking, and food and beverage, indicating a strong preference for technology sectors[5] - Historical data shows that during the last six rounds of RMB appreciation, the stock market generally performed well, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing significant gains[5][17] Economic Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and China's Central Economic Work Conference are critical events that may influence market sentiment and policy direction[4] - The report highlights that the CDS spread for Chinese sovereign bonds has decreased significantly, reflecting improved perceptions of credit risk and increasing foreign interest in Chinese assets[15]

Market Overview - The major stock indices in the market experienced fluctuations and retreated, with the ChiNext index dropping approximately 1% and falling below 2900 points, while around 3200 stocks were in the green [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34% to 3821.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.59%, and the ChiNext index declined by 0.77%, with a total transaction volume of 1,032.6 billion yuan across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [3] Sector Performance - Sectors such as coal, gas, non-ferrous metals, electricity, and stability saw declines, while military and pharmaceutical sectors rose against the trend, with military trade and AI application concepts being particularly active [3] Market Sentiment and Analysis - The current market is characterized by a "three-phase overlap": a consolidation phase in the middle of a bull market, a critical period for verifying economic conditions, and a performance policy gap, leading to market fluctuations and profit-taking as the year-end approaches [3] - Recent disturbances in the overseas environment, including repeated expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, have shaken global market liquidity expectations; despite Nvidia's earnings exceeding expectations, its stock price experienced volatility, raising concerns about the sustainability of AI spending, which has affected sentiment in the A-share market [3] - Long-term factors supporting a slow bull market remain unchanged; however, in the short term, the strategy should focus on opportunistic positioning, awaiting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and the central economic work conference in mid-December, with potential for increased buying if adjustments are sufficient, while monitoring support levels at the 60-day and half-year moving averages and market volume conditions [3]

Core Insights - The news highlights ongoing financial distress among several real estate companies, with many facing significant debt defaults and legal issues, indicating a challenging environment for the sector [17] Company Summaries - First Capital Securities' subsidiary is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for failing to diligently supervise a convertible bond project involving Hongda Xingye [1][11] - Rongqiao Group has failed to repay loans totaling approximately 4.28 billion yuan, with additional commercial acceptance bills amounting to 20.64 million yuan also in default [2] - Zhengrong Real Estate has reported a new enforcement case with a value of 374 million yuan, indicating potential adverse effects on its debt repayment capabilities [3] - Sunshine City has outstanding debt principal totaling 65.46 billion yuan, with negotiations ongoing to resolve risks associated with overdue payments [4] - CIFI Group's subsidiaries have overdue debts totaling approximately 1.38 billion yuan, with ongoing bond restructuring efforts [5] - Greenland Group has faced 1,344 new lawsuits totaling 6.38 billion yuan, further complicating its financial situation [6] - AVIC Industry Finance has announced it will not disclose its Q3 2025 financial report on time, raising concerns about its financial transparency [7] - Pan Hai Holdings has been fined 4 million yuan for failing to disclose significant debt defaults, with penalties imposed on several executives for their lack of diligence [8] - Xi'an Construction has received a self-discipline penalty from the interbank market association for inaccurate disclosures regarding restricted funds and overdue debts [9] - Guangzhou Hanjing Group has reported new overdue debts of 1.63 billion yuan, alongside significant ongoing litigation [10] Market Overview - The real estate sector continues to face multiple challenges, including sluggish sales and restricted financing channels, with over 50% of 41 listed real estate companies reporting losses totaling 87.22 billion yuan in their latest financial disclosures [17]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short term due to multiple positive factors, including policy support and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may enhance market risk appetite [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Tuesday, the A-share market indices experienced a pullback after initially rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points but later retreating due to insufficient trading volume and profit-taking [5]. - The market is currently in a critical phase as it approaches the 4000-point mark, with a high level of recognition for the ongoing "slow bull" market, leading to a cautious stance among investors at significant price levels [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session report has clarified the main goals for economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which is expected to effectively boost market confidence [1]. - The earnings situation of listed companies is anticipated to gradually improve, providing additional upward momentum for the market, despite current earnings still being in a stabilization phase [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market environment is likely to continue improving marginally in the short term, supported by the upcoming release of the "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations, progress in US-China negotiations, and the nearing end of the A-share third-quarter report disclosures [5]. - In the medium term, factors such as anti-involution policies, increased household savings entering the market, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and technical reversals are expected to support a bullish trend in the A-share market for the fourth quarter [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In Q2 2025, the overall default rate of credit bonds showed a downward trend, with a new first - time defaulting entity. The default repayment rate was stable with a slight increase, mainly driven by Sunac's repayment. There were 20 newly - added default bonds, mostly in the real - estate industry with many secondary extensions. The number of urban investment non - standard risk events decreased, while the number of commercial paper overdue entities remained high. Two hot credit events were the failure of AVIC Industry Finance's off - site repayment plan and the extension of a Zhejiang construction private enterprise's debt [2][4][14]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Q2 2025: Overall Default Rate Continued to Decline, Repayment Rate Showed No Obvious Increase (1) Bond Default Rate - The overall default rate of credit bonds declined. There was one new first - time defaulting entity, Xinjie Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. The default scale in Q2 was 5.938 billion yuan, and the default rates from April to June were 1.02%, 1.02%, and 1.00% respectively, showing a downward trend. The default rate of private - enterprise credit bonds also decreased, with the default amounts from April to June being 4.588 billion yuan, 1.35 billion yuan, and 0 yuan respectively, and the default rates being 9.02%, 9.00%, and 8.92% respectively, lower than that in Q1 [14]. (2) Default Repayment Rate - The cumulative default repayment rate in Q2 2025 was stable with a slight increase. The repayment rate in April was higher than that in the previous quarter, mainly due to Sunac's repayment. The principal repayment scale in Q2 increased compared with the previous quarter, with the repayment amounts from April to June being 3.561 billion yuan, 0.266 billion yuan, and 0.016 billion yuan respectively. Sunac had the largest repayment amount, reaching 3.247 billion yuan in Q2, with a repayment progress of 29%. Many real - estate enterprises were promoting debt restructuring, but the cash repayment for investors was limited [20][24][25]. (3) Credit Event Statistics - In Q2 2025, there were 20 newly - added default bonds in domestic bonds, with a total balance of 14.049 billion yuan. Among them, 18 bonds reached extensions, mostly secondary extensions of real - estate industry bonds, and 2 bonds had substantial defaults. Other industries involved included communication equipment, non - bank finance, and medical [28]. (4) Urban Investment舆情 - The number of urban investment non - standard risk events decreased by 12 from Q1 to Q2 2025, mainly distributed in Shandong. In terms of administrative levels, district - level and prefecture - level entities accounted for 86% and 14% respectively. The number of urban investment commercial paper overdue entities remained high, with 57, 55, and 56 entities in April, May, and June respectively, mainly distributed in Shandong and Yunnan [31][33]. 2. Hotspot Analysis: AVIC Industry Finance's Off - site Repayment Plan Rejected, Zhejiang Construction Private Enterprise's Debt Extension (1) AVIC Industry Finance - AVIC Industry Finance planned to transfer off - site for orderly repayment but was not approved by the bondholders' meeting. Its stock was delisted, and it failed to disclose its 2024 annual report. As of July 23, 2025, it had 19 outstanding bonds, with a domestic bond balance of 20.47 billion yuan and overseas bonds of 300 million US dollars. With the support of AVIC Industry Group and its own equity assets that can be realized, the bond default risk was relatively controllable [39][40][49]. (2) Xinjie Holdings - Xinjie Holdings is a Zhejiang private construction enterprise. Its only outstanding bond, "23 Xinjie 01", with a balance of 350 million yuan, had its interest payment and maturity dates extended. The company's construction business income has been declining for three years, and it faces risks such as shrinking housing construction business, large asset restrictions, concentrated short - term debt repayment pressure, and increased guarantee compensation pressure [53][58][59].

Market Overview - A-shares saw all three major indices rise, with the ChiNext Index showing strong performance, particularly in sectors like computing hardware and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - The market is currently in a trend of steady upward movement, with trading volume stabilizing around 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating a shift from "large-cap stocks" to "thematic plays" [1][3] - Long-term capital inflow is accelerating, with ETF sizes steadily increasing and insurance funds continuing to flow in, providing significant support to the market [3] Economic Indicators - No significant negative macroeconomic factors are present before August, suggesting a new bullish window for the market [1] - The domestic economy is stabilizing, and potential liquidity release from interest rate cuts could further enhance market activity in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in electronic components, software development, communication equipment, and aerospace industries, while banking, insurance, precious metals, and real estate sectors lagged [3] - The "anti-involution" policy, if effectively implemented, could alleviate the challenges of "increasing revenue without increasing profit" for companies, potentially leading to a new phase of market growth [1] Policy Impact - The new regulations in the securities industry may lead to revenue growth for brokerage firms, while long-term insurance fund assessment policies could improve investment returns and valuations [3] - The potential for the Federal Reserve to signal interest rate cuts could significantly boost global risk appetite, benefiting the A-share market [3]

Group 1 - The application for the change of major shareholders or actual controllers of AVIC Securities has been accepted on July 8 [1] - The market is speculating about the potential changes in the shareholding structure, particularly regarding the 28.29% stake held by the recently delisted second shareholder AVIC Capital and the 71.71% stake held by the controlling shareholder AVIC Investment [1] - Speculations regarding the change in the frozen shares held by AVIC Capital have been denied by informed sources, shifting the market's focus to the shareholding situation of AVIC Investment [1]