JINYU(SH:600201) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-11-03 15:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024. However, the company has a strong innovation capability and a sufficient reserve of new products for continuous growth, leading to the maintained "Buy" rating [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 971 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 170 million yuan, down 41.19%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 359 million yuan, down 32.79%, with a net profit of 47 million yuan, down 69.70% [2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 277 million yuan, 380 million yuan, and 455 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.25 yuan, 0.34 yuan, and 0.41 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 26.9, 19.6, and 16.4 times for the respective years [2][5]. Product and Market Analysis - The company's revenue from foot-and-mouth disease vaccines accounted for over 40% of total revenue in Q1-Q3 2024. The competitive landscape has intensified, impacting overall operations. However, revenue from pseudorabies and blue ear vaccines continues to grow [3]. - The company has seen a significant increase in market share for non-foot-and-mouth products. Revenue from sheep vaccines grew by 30% year-on-year, reaching over 20 million yuan, despite some decline in revenue and gross margin for brucellosis vaccines due to delayed government procurement [3]. - The poultry vaccine segment has shown improvement, with revenue from avian influenza vaccines increasing, although conventional poultry vaccine prices remain under pressure [3]. Research and Development - The company emphasizes R&D investment, with R&D expenses of 88 million yuan in Q1-Q3 2024. The company is actively involved in the emergency evaluation of non-epidemic vaccines and is progressing well with mRNA vaccine registrations [4]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new products, with a completed offline distributor system and ongoing online channel development, ensuring a strong growth trajectory [4].