Aidea Pharma(SH:688488) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-11-03 15:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a strong growth in sales of its new HIV drug, with revenue from this segment reaching approximately 134 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 188.51%. In Q3 2024 alone, the HIV drug revenue was about 52.49 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 284.23% [3]. - The company has completed the acquisition of Nanda Pharmaceutical, which is expected to create a second growth curve by integrating human-derived protein business [5]. - The company is actively promoting its marketing strategy focused on "medical leadership, market pull, and sales implementation," with clinical research evidence for its HIV products being continuously strengthened [4]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's total revenue was 299 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.89% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -61 million yuan, down 87.75% year-on-year, while the gross margin improved to 52.81%, an increase of 5.42 percentage points [3][6]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to -41 million, -25 million, and 3 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.10, -0.06, and 0.01 yuan per share [3]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 484 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.6%, and the gross margin is expected to reach 60.1% [6]. Pipeline and Market Position - The company has made significant progress in its core pipeline, with the new indication for its innovative drug Rubaond approved in October 2024, which will help expand the coverage of medical insurance and self-pay populations [5]. - The company holds a 51.1256% stake in Nanda Pharmaceutical, which has been consolidated into its financial statements since September 2024, enhancing its position in the human-derived protein industry [5].