China XD(601179) 民生证券·2024-11-03 15:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant profit acceleration, with a 45.33% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 787 million yuan. The net profit for Q3 2024 alone surged by 199.96% year-on-year to 334 million yuan [2][4]. - The company's profitability has improved, with a gross margin of 20.48% for the first three quarters of 2024, up 3.73 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 6.52%, up 1.93 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the gross margin reached 23.74%, reflecting a 6.51 percentage point increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing growth in electricity consumption and substantial investments in the power grid, with a projected revenue growth of 18.3% in 2024 [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 15.162 billion yuan, a 6.94% increase year-on-year. The revenue for Q3 2024 was 4.878 billion yuan, a 4.29% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is forecasted to be 1.265 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 43.0% [5][7]. Market Outlook - The total electricity consumption in China for January to September 2024 reached 74,094 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. The investment in power grid projects during the same period was 398.2 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 21.1% [4]. - The company is expected to maintain its leading market share in the power transmission and transformation equipment sector while expanding into emerging sectors such as smart grids and renewable energy [4]. Earnings Forecast - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 24.896 billion yuan, 29.038 billion yuan, and 33.562 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 18.3%, 16.6%, and 15.6% [5][7]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 1.265 billion yuan, 1.996 billion yuan, and 2.359 billion yuan, with growth rates of 43.0%, 57.7%, and 18.2% [5][7].