建发股份：地产减值和家居业务拖累业绩，供应链业务Q3有所修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 showed a significant decline in net profit, primarily due to the absence of last year's restructuring gains. However, the decline in profit margins has narrowed compared to Q2 2024 [2] - The real estate segment has shown revenue growth, but net profit has decreased due to losses from a subsidiary. The company has made provisions for inventory impairment, impacting overall profitability [2] - The supply chain operations have experienced a recovery in Q3 2024, with a notable increase in net profit compared to previous quarters, although the overall revenue for the year remains down [2] - The home furnishing business has faced losses due to declining occupancy rates and increased discounts offered to merchants [2] - The company is expected to maintain its revenue and profit growth trajectory in the coming years, with projected revenues of 771.9 billion, 790.2 billion, and 791.2 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 502.14 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%, and a net profit of 2.06 billion, down 83.4% [2] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 183.12 billion, a decrease of 14.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.86 billion, down 91.8% [2] - The real estate segment generated revenue of 81.37 billion in the first nine months, up 26% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 19% [2] - The supply chain operations reported revenue of 414.67 billion, down 22.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.24 billion, down 10.2% [2] Business Segments - The real estate business's gross margin decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 12.4%, with significant inventory impairment provisions impacting profitability [2] - The supply chain business showed a recovery in Q3, with net profit increasing by 26.9% from Q2 [2] - The home furnishing segment reported a loss of 0.57 billion due to lower occupancy rates and increased discounts [2] Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 771.9 billion, 790.2 billion, and 791.2 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.4 billion, 4.0 billion, and 4.2 billion [2]