Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company, with a revised 12-month target price of HK$35.5, implying a 0.5x FY24E P/Group EV and 1.1x FY24E P/BV [1][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in NPAT, up 65.5% YoY to RMB38.3 billion, with 3Q NPAT growing 173.6% YoY to RMB13.2 billion, driven by increased investment income and net fair value gains [1]. - Headline NBV rose 37.9% YoY to RMB14.2 billion in 9M24, with 3Q NBV on a like-for-like basis surging 75.3% YoY to RMB5.2 billion, attributed to margin expansions and a recovery in regular-paid new business sales [1][4]. - The company expects strong par sales momentum to continue into FY25, with participating policy sales gaining traction prior to a settlement rate cut [1][4]. Financial Performance - For FY24, the company anticipates a 37% YoY increase in headline NBV and NPAT/OPAT growth of 57%/3% YoY [1]. - EPS forecasts for FY24-26 have been revised up by 29%/6%/3% to RMB4.45/3.93/4.25, reflecting a more certain outlook for profitability and NBV growth [1][4]. - The NBV margin is expected to rise to 23.0% in 3Q24, up 5.9 percentage points YoY, driven by elevated sales of floating interest rate products and strengthened regular-paid new sales [1][4]. Investment Income - The company reported net fair value gains of RMB21.2 billion in 3Q24, a significant recovery from a net loss of RMB7.25 billion in 3Q23, benefiting from a rally in the equity market [1][4]. - The net investment yield landed at 3.9% in 9M24, with total investment yield at 6.3%, showing a positive trend driven by the equity market performance [1][4]. Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at 0.4x FY24E P/EV and 0.9x FY24E P/BV, which is above the 3-year historical average [1][4]. - The report indicates a target valuation of RMB260.6 billion, with an implied P/EV of 0.55x and an implied P/BV of 1.12x [5].
中国太保：3Q NBV growth accelerated; expect par sales to outgrow