Yanghe(002304) 光大证券·2024-11-04 00:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in Q3 2024, with total revenue of 46.41 billion yuan, down 44.82% year-on-year, and net profit of 6.31 billion yuan, down 73.03% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [1][2]. - The company is undergoing an accelerated adjustment to alleviate market pressure, focusing on inventory reduction and channel adjustments due to intense competition and weak demand in the industry [2][3]. - Profitability has been notably impacted by rising expense ratios, with a gross margin of 66.24%, down 8.63 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 13.61%, down 14.23 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 275.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.14%, and a net profit of 85.79 billion yuan, down 15.92% year-on-year [1]. - Q3 2024 saw a total revenue of 46.41 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.31 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline compared to the previous year [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - The revenue decline in Q3 was attributed to intensified competition in the Jiangsu market and overall weak industry demand, leading to a focus on inventory clearance [2]. - The sales cash collection in Q3 was 64.2 billion yuan, down 33.5% year-on-year, indicating pressure on cash flow [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised downwards to 83.9 billion yuan, 84.6 billion yuan, and 89.7 billion yuan, representing reductions of 17.8%, 22.2%, and 22.6% respectively [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14 for the forecasted years, with a projected dividend payout of 70 billion yuan for 2024, yielding a dividend rate of approximately 5.8% [4].