Tuopu Group(601689) 东方证券·2024-11-04 00:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company with a target price of 59.73 RMB [4] Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with Q1-Q3 revenue reaching 19.352 billion RMB, a 36.7% YoY increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.234 billion RMB, up 39.9% YoY [1] - Q3 revenue was 7.13 billion RMB, a 42.9% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 778 million RMB, up 54.6% YoY [1] - Gross margin improved in Q3, reaching 20.9%, up 0.5 percentage points QoQ, despite a 1.8 percentage point YoY decline due to raw material price fluctuations and rising labor costs [1] - The company's platform strategy is advancing, with rapid growth in thermal management and automotive electronics businesses [1] - Domestic and international production capacity is progressing steadily, with new factories in China and overseas projects in Mexico and Poland [1] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 operating cash flow was 1.139 billion RMB, down 57.8% YoY, mainly due to increased purchases and employee compensation [1] - The company's R&D investment continues to grow, supporting the leading position of its product lines, including smart cabins, IBS, EPS, and air suspension systems [1] - The company's single-vehicle supporting amount is approximately 30,000 RMB, with potential for further growth as new customers and projects are secured [1] Business Segments - In Q3, revenue from shock absorbers, interior functional parts, chassis systems, thermal management systems, and automotive electronics reached 1.174 billion RMB, 2.116 billion RMB, 2.225 billion RMB, 584 million RMB, and 583 million RMB, respectively, with automotive electronics growing 1,357.5% YoY [1] - The company's thermal management and automotive electronics businesses are experiencing rapid growth, with automotive electronics achieving significant scale [1] Production Capacity Expansion - Domestic projects, including the Hangzhou Bay Industrial Park Phase VIII and new factories in Anhui and Zhejiang, are progressing well [1] - Overseas projects, such as the Mexico Industrial Park Phase I and Phase II, are on track, with Phase I expected to start production in H1 2024 [1] - The company is also preparing for the Poland Phase II factory to meet European demand [1] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 3.056 billion RMB, 3.729 billion RMB, and 4.693 billion RMB, respectively, with a 2024 PE ratio of 33x [1] - Revenue is expected to grow to 25.278 billion RMB in 2024, 33.216 billion RMB in 2025, and 42.111 billion RMB in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 28.3%, 31.4%, and 26.8%, respectively [3] - Gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 23% from 2024 to 2026 [3] Valuation Metrics - The company's 2024 PE ratio is estimated at 23.7x, with a PB ratio of 3.7x [3] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is forecasted to decrease from 26.0x in 2022 to 10.5x in 2026 [9]