BTG Hotels(600258) EBSCN·2024-11-04 00:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 58.89 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.37% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.63% to 7.23 billion yuan [3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 21.56 billion yuan, down 6.38% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.66 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.54% [3] - The decline in hotel revenue is attributed to a drop in Average Daily Rate (ADR) and the closure of some hotels [4] - The company has been expanding its hotel network, opening 952 new hotels in the first three quarters of 2024, with a target of 1,200 to 1,400 new openings for the year [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, hotel business revenue was 55.03 billion yuan, with a profit of 8.03 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -0.5% and +6.2% respectively [3] - In Q3 2024, hotel revenue was 20.66 billion yuan, down 6.3%, and profit was 4.75 billion yuan, down 9.4% [3] - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 39.6%, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [5] Market Trends - The company's RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) in Q3 2024 was 170 yuan, down 7.8% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base in the same period last year [4] - During the National Day holiday in 2024, the company's RevPAR reached 254 yuan, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year, driven mainly by occupancy rates [6] Future Outlook - The report projects a gradual recovery in RevPAR, with expectations for stabilization in Q4 2024 and into 2025 [6] - The net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 8.28 billion yuan, 9.35 billion yuan, and 10.18 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 9.2%, 11.5%, and 12.5% from previous estimates [7]