Yuanxing Energy(000683) 光大证券·2024-11-04 00:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 6.75 yuan [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance showed significant year-on-year growth, driven by increased sales of soda ash [5] - The Alashan natural soda ash project is progressing steadily, with the first phase already operational and the second phase under construction, expected to be completed by December 2025 [5] - The company benefits from a cost advantage due to its superior location and low-energy consumption production process, which enhances profitability [5] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.3 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 600 million yuan, up 31% year-on-year [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue reached 10.4 billion yuan, a 29% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 1.8 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year [3] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 0.68, 0.78, and 0.90 yuan, respectively, with net profits of 2.555, 2.907, and 3.368 billion yuan [5] Industry and Market Dynamics - The soda ash industry in 2024 experienced both supply and demand growth, with increased domestic production and imports, but the market remains oversupplied, leading to declining prices [5] - Heavy soda ash prices in Q3 2024 were 1,868 yuan/ton, down 28% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter, while urea prices were 2,084 yuan/ton, down 18% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company's soda ash sales were supported by the "Golden September and Silver October" expectations in the real estate sector and the demand from new photovoltaic glass production lines [5] Project Development - The Alashan natural soda ash project's first phase has four production lines with a combined annual capacity of 5 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of baking soda, all of which are operating normally [5] - The second phase of the Alashan project, with an investment of 5.5 billion yuan, is expected to add 2.8 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of baking soda annually by December 2025 [5] Cost Advantage - The company's subsidiary, Yingen Mining, benefits from its proximity to coal resources, which reduces the cost of raw materials for soda ash production [5] - The natural soda ash production method used by the company is more energy-efficient and environmentally friendly compared to traditional methods, further enhancing its cost advantage [5]