Kouzijiao(SH:603589) EBSCN·2024-11-04 00:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced pressure on its Q3 performance, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 at 4.362 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.311 billion yuan, down 2.81% year-on-year [1][4]. - Q3 revenue was 1.195 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 22.04%, and net profit for the quarter was 362 million yuan, down 27.72% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, sales revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor was 4.112 billion, 49 million, and 91 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.1%, -27.4%, and +44.5% [2]. - In Q3 alone, high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor sales were 1.139 billion, 130 million, and 210 million yuan, showing year-on-year changes of -22.7%, -55.3%, and +26.5% [2]. Regional Sales - Revenue from sales in Anhui province and outside the province for the first three quarters of 2024 was 3.555 billion and 696 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -1.65% and -8.14% respectively [2]. - In Q3, sales revenue in Anhui and outside the province was 952 million and 221 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of -22.1% and -25.6% [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 71.91%, a decrease of 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to pressure on high-end product sales and increased competition [3]. - The net profit margin for Q3 was 30.28%, down 2.38 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Cash receipts from sales in Q3 were 1.426 billion yuan, an increase of 1.78% year-on-year, indicating better cash flow performance compared to revenue [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised down to 1.62 billion and 1.68 billion yuan, representing reductions of 24% and 32% from previous estimates [4]. - The report projects an EPS of 2.70, 2.80, and 2.97 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 15, 14, and 13 times [4].