Amazon(AMZN) 国泰君安·2024-11-04 00:47Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Amazon (AMZN O) [1] Core Views - Amazon s 24Q3 revenue slightly exceeded expectations while profits significantly surpassed expectations [2] - AWS business showed stable growth with a flat quarter over quarter growth rate [2] - Continued capital expenditure in the AI sector is noted [2] Financial Performance - FY24Q3 total revenue reached $1589 billion a 11% YoY increase slightly above the consensus estimate of $1573 billion [3] - Operating profit was $174 billion a 56% YoY increase significantly higher than the consensus estimate of $147 billion [3] - Net profit stood at $153 billion a 55% YoY increase [3] - International and North America retail business operating margins improved to 59% and 36% respectively due to enhanced transportation and fulfillment efficiency [3] - AWS operating margin increased by 2 percentage points due to extended server depreciation periods starting from 2024 [3] AWS Performance - AWS Q3 revenue was $275 billion a 191% YoY increase with a slight quarter over quarter growth of 04% [3] - Annualized AWS revenue reached $1100 billion with AI demand exceeding supply capacity and annualized revenue in the billions growing over 100% YoY [3] - Amazon s self developed chip Trainium 2 is set for large scale deployment in a few weeks [3] Retail Performance - Retail sector revenue grew by 95% slightly above market expectations by 12 percentage points [3] - North America and international retail revenues were $955 billion and $359 billion respectively with YoY growth rates of 9% and 12% [3] - Consumer preference shifted towards lower average selling price (ASP) products with strong demand for daily necessities [3] - International business growth was partly driven by favorable currency exchange rates [3] - 3P merchant services and advertising revenue growth slowed while self operated retail accelerated [3] - 3P merchant order share dropped by 1 percentage point to 60% [3] Capital Expenditure - 2024 Capex guidance is $750 billion with plans to increase Capex in 2025 primarily to support AWS especially AI service demand [3] Financial Projections - Adjusted 2024E 2026E revenue forecasts are $6393 billion $7097 billion and $7955 billion respectively with YoY growth rates of 11% 11% and 12% [3] - Adjusted GAAP net profit forecasts for 2024E 2026E are $557 billion $699 billion and $830 billion respectively with YoY growth rates of 83% 25% and 19% [3] - Target price is raised to $2262 USD [3] Market Data - Current stock price is $19793 [4] - 52 week stock price range is $13745 $20120 [4] - Current market capitalization is $2080442 million [4]