SCSF(600779) 光大证券·2024-11-04 01:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported stable operations in Q3 2024, with total revenue of 3.788 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.125 billion yuan, up 10.03% year-on-year [1][2]. - The performance in Q3 was in line with market expectations, with a slight revenue increase of 0.38% year-on-year [2]. - The company has optimized its marketing expenses, leading to an increase in net profit margin, with a net profit margin of 42.65%, up 2.89 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 3.788 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.125 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.56% and 10.03% respectively [1]. - In Q3 alone, total revenue was 2.07 billion yuan, with a net profit of 883 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.38% and 7.67% respectively [1][2]. Product Performance - High-end and mid-range liquor revenues in Q3 were 1.94 billion yuan and 99 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.0% and an increase of 87.2% respectively [2]. - The mid-range liquor segment, particularly products like Tianhao Chen, has shown significant growth due to current consumer demand [2]. Cost Management - The sales expense ratio improved significantly to 8.44%, down 3.99 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to the increase in profitability [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 84.57%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards to 1.376 billion yuan, 1.468 billion yuan, and 1.589 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 2.82 yuan, 3.01 yuan, and 3.25 yuan [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 16, 15, and 14 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4].