GREE(000651) 中泰证券·2024-11-04 02:01Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with Q3 revenue of 47.1 billion yuan (-16% YoY) and net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.8 billion yuan (+5.5% YoY) [2] - Q1-3 revenue was 147.4 billion yuan (-5% YoY), with net profit attributable to the parent company of 22 billion yuan (+9% YoY) [2] - The company's channel reform has been effective, leading to a significant decrease in sales expense ratio (4%, -4% YoY) [3] - The company's Q1-3 performance has consistently met or exceeded market expectations, with both domestic and export sales showing positive trends in Q4 [4] Financial Performance and Forecast Revenue and Profit - 2022A revenue: 190.151 billion yuan, 2023A revenue: 205.018 billion yuan (+8% YoY), 2024E revenue: 205.855 billion yuan (+0% YoY), 2025E revenue: 212.642 billion yuan (+3% YoY), 2026E revenue: 219.490 billion yuan (+3% YoY) [1] - 2022A net profit attributable to the parent company: 24.507 billion yuan, 2023A net profit attributable to the parent company: 29.017 billion yuan (+18% YoY), 2024E net profit attributable to the parent company: 31.870 billion yuan (+10% YoY), 2025E net profit attributable to the parent company: 33.165 billion yuan (+4% YoY), 2026E net profit attributable to the parent company: 34.970 billion yuan (+5% YoY) [1] Key Financial Ratios - 2022A ROE: 25%, 2023A ROE: 25%, 2024E ROE: 23%, 2025E ROE: 20%, 2026E ROE: 19% [1] - 2022A P/E: 9.9x, 2023A P/E: 8.4x, 2024E P/E: 7.6x, 2025E P/E: 7.4x, 2026E P/E: 7.0x [1] - 2022A P/B: 2.5x, 2023A P/B: 2.1x, 2024E P/B: 1.8x, 2025E P/B: 1.5x, 2026E P/B: 1.3x [1] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - 2023A operating cash flow: 56.398 billion yuan, 2024E operating cash flow: 42.937 billion yuan, 2025E operating cash flow: 38.576 billion yuan, 2026E operating cash flow: 39.250 billion yuan [6] - 2023A total assets: 368.054 billion yuan, 2024E total assets: 392.591 billion yuan, 2025E total assets: 422.271 billion yuan, 2026E total assets: 446.419 billion yuan [6] Industry and Market Analysis - Q3 domestic sales of air conditioners decreased by 20%, while export sales increased by 43% [3] - Q4 production of air conditioners is expected to increase by 50%, with the company benefiting from this trend [4] - The company's export revenue accounts for only 15-20% of total revenue, which is lower than peers, making it less affected by tariff risks [4] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The company's 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to be 205.9/212.6/219.5 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 31.9/33.2/35.0 billion yuan [4] - The company's 2024/2025/2026 P/E ratios are 8/7/7x, supporting the "Buy" rating [4]