JGJC(SZ:000799) Soochow Securities·2024-11-04 02:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2024, with total revenue of 1.2 billion yuan, down 44.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 56 million yuan, down 88.2% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 200 million yuan, a decrease of 67.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of -65 million yuan, down 213.7% year-on-year. The decline in Q3 revenue is attributed to a slowdown in industry sales and cautious attitudes from channels regarding inventory [2][3] - The company is focusing on transforming its marketing model, emphasizing deepening its domestic market and building model markets. The next phase will focus on breakthroughs and in-depth potential exploration, aiming for revenue stabilization as terminal construction and BC linkage results gradually emerge [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2022, total revenue was 4.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.63%. In 2023, revenue dropped to 2.83 billion yuan, down 30.14%. The forecast for 2024 is 1.55 billion yuan, a decline of 45.18%, with projections of 1.69 billion yuan in 2025 and 1.94 billion yuan in 2026, showing a recovery trend [1][13] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.05 billion yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 17.39%. In 2023, it fell to 547.81 million yuan, down 47.77%, and is expected to drop further to 61.17 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 88.83%. Projections for 2025 and 2026 are 70.77 million yuan and 132.19 million yuan, respectively [1][13] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is 1.69 yuan per share, with a forecast of 0.19 yuan in 2024, 0.22 yuan in 2025, and 0.41 yuan in 2026 [1][13] Market and Operational Insights - The company is experiencing a contraction in channels and cautious payment collection. The revenue for Q3 2024 was significantly lower than Q2, attributed to a general pressure on white liquor sales and a slow cash turnover in channels [3][4] - The company is adjusting its product selection and payment collection strategies, with a focus on improving terminal construction and enhancing core market performance. The company aims to stabilize revenue through these adjustments [3][5] Valuation Metrics - The current market valuation corresponds to a P/E ratio of 271 for 2024, 234 for 2025, and 125 for 2026, reflecting the anticipated recovery in profitability [5][14]